IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of Consumer Loans on Inflation and Current Account Deficit: A Toda Yamamoto Causality Test for Turkey


  • Serhat Yuksel

    () (Istanbul Medipol University, School of Business)

  • Mustafa Ozsari

    (Konya Food and Agriculture University, Department of Economics)


This study aims to investigate the causality relationship between consumer loans and inflation, and consumer loans and current account deficit in Turkey. In this scope, Toda Yamamoto causality test is used for the periods between 1994:1 and 2015:3. According to test results, we found that there is no causal relationship between consumer loans and inflation rate, and consumer loans and current account deficit. In other words, changes in consumer loans do not lead neither high current account deficit rates nor high inflation rates in Turkey. Therefore, limiting consumer loans is not the solution for inflation and current account deficit problems of Turkey and policy makers should apply some other effective policies to solve high CA deficit and high inflation problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhat Yuksel & Mustafa Ozsari, 2016. "Impact of Consumer Loans on Inflation and Current Account Deficit: A Toda Yamamoto Causality Test for Turkey," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 2(2), pages 3-14, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ana:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:2:p:3-14
    DOI: 10.22440/wjae.2.2.1

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Consumer Loans; Inflation; Current Account Deficit; Johansen Co-integration Test; Toda Yamamoto Causality Test;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ana:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:2:p:3-14. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Unal Tongur). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.