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Wypadki W Rolnictwie A Kapitał Ludzki: Analiza Trendów I Prognoza W Kontekście Ekonomii Rozwoju

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  • ZIELIŃSKA, ANETTA

Abstract

Wypadki przy pracy i ich skutki stanowią ważny problem społecznoekonomiczny. Umiejętności pracownika i wiedza ludzka bezpośrednio oddziałują na bezpieczeństwo pracy i częstotliwość występowania wypadków. Celem badań było ukazanie tendencji występowania wypadków przy pracy w rolnictwie w latach 2014-2024 oraz poznanie ich struktury według miejsca zdarzenia. Ponadto podjęto próbę opracowania prognozy liczby wypadków w rolnictwie na lata 2025-2027. Badaniem objęto wszystkie wypadki przy pracy zarejestrowane w Kasie Rolniczego Ubezpieczenia Społecznego (KRUS). Materiał źródłowy oparto na przeglądzie literatury przedmiotu i niepublikowanych danych wtórnych pochodzących z KRUS. Zebrane dane poddano analizie za pomocą trendów czasowych. Zastosowano metodę prognozowania, a ze względu na charakter składowych systematycznych, zastosowano metodę Holta i metodę naiwną w wersji przyrost bez zmian. Z przeprowadzonych badań wynika, że z roku na rok liczba wypadków przy pracy w rolnictwie zmniejszała się średnio o 8%. Na podstawie prognozowania statystycznego z uwzględnieniem prognoz błędu ex post i RMSPE, liczba wypadków w polskim rolnictwie w latach 2025 i 2026 powinna zmniejszyć się o 2% w stosunku do 2024 roku. Przeprowadzone analizy pozwoliły częściowo wypełnić istniejącą lukę badawczą w zakresie długofalowych trendów wypadkowości w rolnictwie.

Suggested Citation

  • Zielińska, Anetta, 2025. "Wypadki W Rolnictwie A Kapitał Ludzki: Analiza Trendów I Prognoza W Kontekście Ekonomii Rozwoju," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2025(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:paaero:401334
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.401334
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Heckman, 2011. "Policies to foster human capital," Voprosy obrazovaniya / Educational Studies Moscow, National Research University Higher School of Economics, issue 3, pages 73-137.
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