IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/naaenj/280315.html

Effects of Climate and Other Selected Variables on Rice Output Response in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Abu, O.
  • Okpe, A.E.
  • Abah, D.A.

Abstract

Over the years, rising temperature and unpredictable rainfall have been found to create significant consequences in crop and livestock production as well as threatened food security. This study examined the effects of climate change on rice output response in Nigeria from 1966 to 2015 using an error correction model. The results showed that temperature and rainfall adversely affected rice output in Nigeria during the period studied. Furthermore, results showed that rice output was affected by other variables included in the model both in the long and short-runs. The coefficient of real producer price of rice lagged by one year was positive while the real producer price of maize lagged by one year was negative and statistically significant showing that when the price of maize increases over a period of time, a farmer will shift from rice production to maize production and vice versa. The coefficient of the error correction term (ECT_1) was negative and significant at 10% significance level, indicating that rice output adjusted to the equilibrium given any changes in own price, price of substitute and climatic variables. Consequently, for this model in the short-run, rice output was adjusted by 3% of the past year’s deviation from equilibrium. The variance decomposition result showed that rainfall had the most drastic effect on rice output. Consequently, in order for Nigeria to mitigate the negative consequence of climate change on rice output, there is a need for the promotion of irrigation systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Abu, O. & Okpe, A.E. & Abah, D.A., . "Effects of Climate and Other Selected Variables on Rice Output Response in Nigeria," Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Nigerian Journal of Agricultural Economics, vol. 8(01).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:naaenj:280315
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.280315
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/280315/files/Volume%208%281%29_Abu%20et%20al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.280315?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Mythili, 2006. "Supply response of Indian farmers: Pre and post reforms," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-009, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Abu, Orefi, 2015. "Long Run Relationship Between Sorghum Yield, Rainfall And Producer Price In Nigeria," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(01), pages 1-10, January.
    3. Marc Nerlove, 1956. "Estimates of the Elasticities of Supply of Selected Agricultural Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 496-509.
    4. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    5. Hallam, David & Zanoli, Raffaele, 1993. "Error Correction Models and Agricultural Supply Response," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 20(2), pages 151-166.
    6. Gbetibouo, Glwadys Aymone & Ringler, Claudia, 2009. "Mapping South African farming sector vulnerability to climate change and variability: A subnational assessment," IFPRI discussion papers 885, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. Nmadu, J.N. & Coker, A.A.A. & Adams, E., 2017. "Determinants of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Yam Producers in Niger State, Nigeria," 2017 Annual NAAE Conference, October 16-19, Abeokuta, Nigeria 288424, Nigerian Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Weliwita, Ananda & Govindasamy, Ramu, 1997. "Supply Response In The Northeastern Fresh Tomato Market: Cointegration And Error Correction Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 1-9, April.
    9. Akpan, Sunday B. & Okon, Uwemedimo E. & Udo, Udoro J., 2017. "Influence of Climate Change Indicators on Agribusiness Growth Index in Nigeria," 2017 Annual NAAE Conference, October 16-19, Abeokuta, Nigeria 288467, Nigerian Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Stern,Nicholas, 2007. "The Economics of Climate Change," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521700801.
    11. Nickell, Stephen, 1985. "Error Correction, Partial Adjustment and All That: An Expository Note," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 47(2), pages 119-129, May.
    12. Oyakhilomen, Oyinbo & Zibah, Rekwot Grace, 2014. "Agricultural Production and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Implication for Rural Poverty Alleviation," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universitaat zu Berlin, vol. 53(3), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Howard, Joshua C. & Cakan, Esin & Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 2016. "Climate Change And Its Impact On Wheat Production In Kansas," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-10, April.
    14. G. Mythili, 2006. "Supply Response of Indian Farmers - Pre and Post Reforms," Microeconomics Working Papers 22412, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    15. Nwali, Nte I. & Okoro, Frank N., 2017. "Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Rice Output in Ebonyi State, Nigeria: 1990-2015," 2017 Annual NAAE Conference, October 16-19, Abeokuta, Nigeria 288426, Nigerian Association of Agricultural Economists.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Howard, Joshua C. & Cakan, Esin & Upadhyaya, Kamal P., 2016. "Climate Change And Its Impact On Wheat Production In Kansas," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 4(2), pages 1-10, April.
    2. Yoon, Jongyeol & Brown, Scott, "undated". "Examination of asymmetric supply response in the U.S. livestock industry," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252779, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Ndayitwayeko, W-M. & Odhiambo, M.O. & Nyangweso, P.M. & Korir, M.K., 2012. "Determinants of Beef Meat Supply in Burundi: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach Applied to structural Nerlov Paradign," 2012 Eighth AFMA Congress, November 25-29, 2012, Nairobi, Kenya 159414, African Farm Management Association (AFMA).
    4. repec:ags:icar24:344972 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Amina Al Naabi & Shekar Bose, 2020. "Do Regulatory Measures Necessarily Affect Oman’s Seafood Export-Supply?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, August.
    6. Vinaya Kumar Hebbsale Mallappa & M. Shivamurthy, 2021. "Factor influencing fishery-based farmers’ perception and their response to climate-induced crisis management," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 11766-11791, August.
    7. Parappurathu, Shinoj & Kumar, Anjani & Kumar, Shiv & Jain, Rajni, 2014. "Commodity Outlook on Major Cereals in India," Policy Papers 344972, ICAR National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NIAP).
    8. Maria Waldinger, 2015. "The economic effects of long-term climate change: evidence from the little ice age," GRI Working Papers 214, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    9. Belachew Gizachew & Rasmus Astrup & Pål Vedeld & Eliakimu M. Zahabu & Lalisa A. Duguma, 2017. "REDD+ in Africa: contexts and challenges," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2), pages 92-104, May.
    10. Simon Dietz & David Maddison, 2009. "New Frontiers in the Economics of Climate Change," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 295-306, July.
    11. Shinoj Parappurathu & Anjani Kumar & Shiv Kumar & Rajni Jain, 2014. "A Partial Equilibrium Model for Future Outlooks on Major Cereals in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 155-192, May.
    12. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    13. Bryan, Elizabeth & Behrman, Julia A., 2013. "Community–based adaptation to climate change: A theoretical framework, overview of key issues and discussion of gender differentiated priorities and participation," CAPRi working papers 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    14. Jonathon Siegle & Gregory Astill & Zoë Plakias & Daniel Tregeagle, 2024. "Estimating perennial crop supply response: A methodology literature review," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 159-180, March.
    15. Christian L. E. Franzke, 2017. "Impacts of a Changing Climate on Economic Damages and Insurance," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-110, June.
    16. Weliwita, Ananda & Govindasamy, Ramu, 1997. "Supply Response in the Northeastern Fresh Tomato Market: Cointegration and Error Correction Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 247-255, October.
    17. Md Zabid Iqbal & Bruce A. Babcock, 2018. "Global growing‐area elasticities of key agricultural crops estimated using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 681-690, November.
    18. Ian Rowlands, 2011. "Ancillary impacts of energy-related climate change mitigation options in Africa’s least developed countries," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(7), pages 749-773, October.
    19. Mattoo, Aaditya & Subramanian, Arvind, 2012. "Equity in Climate Change: An Analytical Review," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1083-1097.
    20. Awudu Abdulai, 2018. "Simon Brand Memorial Address," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 28-39, January.
    21. Antony, Nyerere, 2016. "Determinants Of Rice Supply In Tanzania," Research Theses 276426, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:naaenj:280315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/naaeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.