Market Inversion In Commodity Futures Prices
In an inverted market, current prices are higher than future prices and thus the price of storage is negative. Market inversions as measured with futures spreads rarely occur during early months of the crop year. However, market inversions frequently occur across crop years and near the end of the crop year. In the last half of the crop year, market inversions clearly reflect a signal to sell stocks. Too few inversions occur early in the crop year to reach a definitive conclusion for that period. Behavioral finance offers possible explanations of why producers would hold stocks in an inverted market.
Volume (Year): 34 (2002)
Issue (Month): 03 (December)
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- Darren L. Frechette & Paul L. Fackler, 1999. "What Causes Commodity Price Backwardation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 761-771.
- Kastens, Terry L. & Dhuyvetter, Kevin C., 1999. "Post-Harvest Grain Storing And Hedging With Efficient Futures," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(02), December.
- Brennan, Donna & Williams, Jeffrey & Wright, Brian D, 1997. "Convenience Yield without the Convenience: A Spatial-Temporal Interpretation of Storage under Backwardation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(443), pages 1009-22, July.
- Jackson, Thomas E. & Irwin, Scott H. & Good, Darrel L., 1998. "1996 Pricing Performance Of Market Advisory Services For Corn And Soybeans," AgMAS Project Research Reports 14787, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.
- Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2001. "Implications of Behavioral Finance for Farmer Marketing Strategy Recommendation," 2001 Conference, April 23-24, 2001, St. Louis, Missouri 18952, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
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