IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/revage/v23y2001i1p151-162..html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Producer Ability to Forecast Harvest Corn and Soybean Prices

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Kenyon

Abstract

Harvest-price expectations for corn and soybeans were obtained in January and February each year from 1991–1998. Producer expectations on average missed actualcorn and soybean prices by $0.41 and $0.67 per bushel, respectively. Producer price expectations each year had a range of over $1.00 per bushelfor both crops. Producer price distributions were skewed toward higher prices, and they consistently underestimated the probability of large price changes from January until harvest.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Kenyon, 2001. "Producer Ability to Forecast Harvest Corn and Soybean Prices," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 23(1), pages 151-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:23:y:2001:i:1:p:151-162.
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1058-7195.00051
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Schunk & Bruce Hannon, 2004. "Impacts of a carbon tax policy on Illinois grain farms: a dynamic simulation study," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 6(3), pages 221-247, September.
    2. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2002. "Market Inversion In Commodity Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Pena-Levano, Luis M. & Ramirez, Octavio & Renteria-Pinon, Mario, 2015. "Efficiency Gains in Commodity Forecasting with High Volatility in Prices using Different Levels of Data Aggregation," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205740, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. David C. Roberts & Christopher D. Clark & Burton C. English & William M. Park & Roland K. Roberts, 2009. "Estimating Annualized Riparian Buffer Costs for the Harpeth River Watershed," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 894-913.
    5. Pena-Levano, Luis M & Foster, Kenneth, 2016. "Efficiency gains in commodity forecasting using disaggregated levels versus more aggregated predictions," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235792, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Sherrick, Bruce J., 2001. "The Accuracy Of Producer Expectations: Evidence And Implications For Insurance Valuation," 2001 Regional Committee NC-221, October 1-2, 2001, McLean, Virginia 132390, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    7. Kamel Elouhichi & Maria Espinosa Goded & Pavel Ciaian & Angel Perni Llorente & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2018. "The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening," JRC Research Reports JRC108693, Joint Research Centre.
    8. Moledina, Amyaz A. & Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew, 2004. "Measuring Commodity Price Volatility And The Welfare Consequences Of Eliminating Volatility," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 19963, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    9. Haile, Mekbib G & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Usman, Muhammed A, 2015. "Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, December.
    10. Riley, John Michael & Anderson, John D., 2009. "Producer Perceptions of Corn, Soybean and Cotton Price Risk," 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia 46865, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    11. Sherrick, Bruce J., 2002. "The Accuracy Of Producers' Probability Beliefs: Evidence And Implications For Insurance Valuation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, July.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:revage:v:23:y:2001:i:1:p:151-162.. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press or Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.