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What Causes Commodity Price Backwardation?

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  • Darren L. Frechette
  • Paul L. Fackler

Abstract

A recently proposed explanation for futures price backwardation is examined. An equilibrium model with spatial heterogeneity leads to the interpretation of backwardations as mismeasurement by the analyst. However, the model predicts that backwardations are more affected by the location of stocks than by their aggregate level. Empirical examination of the United States corn market fails to support this result. Copyright 1999, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Darren L. Frechette & Paul L. Fackler, 1999. "What Causes Commodity Price Backwardation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(4), pages 761-771.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:81:y:1999:i:4:p:761-771
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1244322
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    Cited by:

    1. Yoon, Byung-Sam & Brorsen, B. Wade, 2002. "Market Inversion In Commodity Futures Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 34(03), December.
    2. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    3. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Franken, Jason R.V. & Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "Do Interest Rates Explain Disaggregate Commodity Price Growth?," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21319, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Seamon, V. Frederick & Kahl, Kandice H. & Curtis, Charles E., Jr., 2001. "Regional And Seasonal Differences In The Cotton Basis," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(2).
    6. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2000. "Commodity Price Behavior: A Rational Expectations Storage Model of Corn," Working Papers 127682, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    7. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2001. "Income-Enhancing And Risk-Reducing Properties Of Marketing Practices," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20613, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa & Tomek, William G., 2001. "Income Enhancing and Risk Management Properties of Marketing Practices," Working Papers 127653, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    9. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "A model of spatial arbitrage with transport capacity constraints and endogenous transport prices," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    10. Andrew Coleman, 2008. "Storage Under Backwardation: A Direct Test of the Wright-Williams Conjecture," Working Papers 08_13, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.

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