IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/arerjl/180411.html

Ethanol, the Agricultural Economy, and Rural Incomes in the United States: A Bivariate Econometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Akinfenwa, Samson O.
  • Qasmi, Bashir A.

Abstract

We examine the causal relationships between ethanol production and the agricultural economy and rural incomes in the United States for 1981 through 2010. We use bivariate cointegration and Granger causality procedures and account for two structural breaks in ethanol production in the analysis, which shows that ethanol production Granger-caused agricultural net value added, agriculture’s share of U.S. employment, net returns to operators, and rural income per capita in the short run. These causal relationships generally persisted in the long run. However, the causality between ethanol and rural incomes diminished in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Akinfenwa, Samson O. & Qasmi, Bashir A., 2014. "Ethanol, the Agricultural Economy, and Rural Incomes in the United States: A Bivariate Econometric Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 43(2), pages 1-15, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:180411
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.180411
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/180411/files/ARER%202014%2008%20Akinfenwa.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.180411?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarah A. Low & Andrew M. Isserman, 2009. "Ethanol and the Local Economy," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, February.
    2. House, Robert & Peters, Mark & Baumes, Harry & Disney, W. Terry, "undated". "Ethanol and Agriculture: Effect of Increased Production on Crop and Livestock Sectors," Agricultural Economic Reports 262028, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
    4. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Jones, Carol Adaire & El-Osta, Hisham S. & Green, Robert C., 2006. "Economic Well-Being of Farm Households," Economic Brief 34095, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Amani Elobeid & Simla Tokgoz & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Chad E. Hart, 2006. "Long-Run Impact of Corn-Based Ethanol on the Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Sectors: A Preliminary Assessment, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 06-bp49, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    8. Miao, Ruiqing, 2013. "Impact of Ethanol Plants on Local Land Use Change," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 291-309, August.
    9. Lambert, Dayton M. & Wilcox, Michael D. & English, Alicia & Stewart, Lance A., 2008. "Ethanol Plant Location Determinants and County Comparative Advantage," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), pages 1-19, April.
    10. Westcott, Paul C., 2007. "U.S. Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural Sector," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-6, September.
    11. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-440, August.
    12. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    13. Clive W. J. Granger, 1988. "Aggregation of time series variables-a survey," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    14. Zapata, Hector O & Rambaldi, Alicia N, 1997. "Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(2), pages 285-298, May.
    15. Leibtag, Ephraim S., 2008. "Corn Records Near Record High, But What About Food Costs?," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-6, February.
    16. repec:icf:icfjag:v:05:y:2008:i:2:p:7-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:cup:jagaec:v:40:y:2008:i:1:p:117-135_4 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Aldrich, Lorna M. & Kusmin, Lorin D., 1997. "Rural Economic Development: What Makes Rural Communities Grow?," Agricultural Information Bulletins 33677, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Coyle, William T., 2007. "The Future of Biofuels: A Global Perspective," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, pages 1-6, November.
    20. Lau, Evan & Puah, Chin-Hong & Oh, Swee-Ling & Lo, Yan-Ching, 2008. "Causality between White Pepper and Black Pepper: Evidence from Six Markets in Sarawak," MPRA Paper 6552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Phillips, Peter C.B., 2005. "Challenges of trending time series econometrics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 68(5), pages 401-416.
    22. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Akinfenwa, Samson O. & Qasmi, Bashir A., 2014. "Ethanol, the Agricultural Economy, and Rural Incomes in the United States: A Bivariate Econometric Approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0, pages 1-15.
    2. Smile Dube, 2009. "Foreign Direct Investment and Electricity Consumption on Economic Growth: Evidence from South Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 62(2), pages 175-200.
    3. Theodoros Zachariadis, 2006. "On the exploration of casual relationship between energy and economy," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 5-2006, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    4. Mohammad Afzal, 2010. "Exchange Rate and Reserves in Asian Countries: Causality Test," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 215-223.
    5. Manuel Ennes Ferreira & Jelson Serafim & João Dias, 2022. "Finance-Growth Nexus: Evidence from Angola," Working Papers REM 2022/0227, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Rana Ejaz Ali Khan & Nadia Bashir, 2011. "Trade Liberalization, Poverty and Inequality Nexus: A Case Study of India," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(3), pages 114-119, September.
    7. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gungor, Hasan & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2015. "The time-varying causality between spot and futures crude oil prices: A regime switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 51-71.
    8. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    9. Nour Wehbe & Bassam Assaf & Salem Darwich, 2018. "Étude de causalité entre la consommation d’électricité et la croissance économique au Liban," Post-Print hal-01944291, HAL.
    10. Zhihui Lv & Amanda M. Y. Chu & Michael McAleer & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Modelling Economic Growth, Carbon Emissions, and Fossil Fuel Consumption in China: Cointegration and Multivariate Causality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, October.
    11. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    12. Senay ACIKGOZ & Anil AKCAGLAYAN, 2014. "Turkiye’de Cari Islemler Aciginin Surdurulebilirligi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 14(1), pages 83-97.
    13. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.
    14. Rahman, Md Saifur & Junsheng, Ha & Shahari, Farihana & Aslam, Mohamed & Masud, Muhammad Mehedi & Banna, Hasanul & Liya, Ma, 2015. "Long-run relationship between sectoral productivity and energy consumption in Malaysia: An aggregated and disaggregated viewpoint," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 436-445.
    15. Jaganath BEHERA, 2023. "Sectoral Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth In India: An Empirical Study From 1970 To 2016," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 23(2), pages 127-152.
    16. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," MPRA Paper 27962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Özgür Özaydın* & H. Alper Güzel, 2019. "Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Bounds Test Approach in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Business, Management and Economics Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(6), pages 77-85, 06-2019.
    18. Jaganath Behera, 2015. "Examined the Energy-Led Growth Hypothesis in India: Evidence from Time Series Analysis," Energy Economics Letters, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(4), pages 46-56, December.
    19. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2017. "On the Effects of the BRICS on World Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 81757, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2017.
    20. Lei Pan & Svetlana Maslyuk-Escobedo & Vinod Mishra, 2019. "Carry Trade Returns and Commodity Prices under Capital and Interest Rate Controls: Empirical Evidence from China," Monash Economics Working Papers 16-18, Monash University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:arerjl:180411. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nareaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.