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Distributed Lags And Barley Acreage Response Analysis

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  • Anderson, Kym

Abstract

The need to incorporate production response lags in agricultural supply models is established, and two such lags are considered: the familiar adaptive expectations geometric lag, and a more general polynomial lag. These distributed lag supply response models are applied to Australian barley data for the period 1946-47 to 1968-69. A number of statistical problems associated with the adaptive expectations model are discussed, and in particular it is concluded that lags both in the formation of price expectations and in acreage adjustment should be considered when using geometric lag models. While the polynomial lag model does not provide useful results in the present study, its simplicity and flexibility suggest it may be useful in other studies requiring distributed lag models. The short run and long run price elasticity of barley supply estimates are compared with Gruen et al. [14] supply elasticities for the other major rural commodities, from which it appears that barley has a higher short run elasticity but a lower long run elasticity than wheat, wool and meat.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson, Kym, 1974. "Distributed Lags And Barley Acreage Response Analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 1-14, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ajaeau:22790
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.22790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc Nerlove, 1956. "Estimates of the Elasticities of Supply of Selected Agricultural Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 496-509.
    2. White, B.J., 1972. "Supply Projections for the Australian Beef Industry," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(01), pages 1-12, March.
    3. Tweeten, Luther G & Quance, C Leroy, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 175-183, May.
    4. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1.
    5. Powell, Alan A. & Gruen, Fred H.G., 1966. "Problems in Aggregate Agricultural Supply Analysis: II - Preliminary Results for Cereals and Wool," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(04), pages 1-16, December.
    6. Luther G. Tweeten & C. Leroy Quance, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 342-352.
    7. Glenn L. Johnson, 1960. "The State of Agricultural Supply Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 42(2), pages 435-452.
    8. Dean Chen & Richard Courtney & Andrew Schmitz, 1972. "A Polynomial Lag Formulation of Milk Production Response," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 54(1), pages 77-83.
    9. T.J. Mules, 1972. "A Supply Function For Dairy Products," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(3), pages 195-203, December.
    10. Mules, T.J., 1972. "A Supply Function For Dairy Products," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(3), pages 1-9, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fisher, Brian S., 1975. "Supply Response In The Wheat-Belt Of South-Eastern Australia: The Impact Of Delivery Quotas On Wheat Plantings," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(2), pages 1-13, August.
    2. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hazell, Peter B.R. & Cowie, A.J. & Wan, G.H., 1988. "Changing Variability in Cereal Production in Australia," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(03), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Gellatly, Colin, 1979. "Forecasting N.S.W. Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 47(02), pages 1-14, August.
    4. William E. Griffiths & Jock R. Anderson, 1978. "Specification Of Agricultural Supply Functions — Empirical Evidence On Wheat In Southern N.S.W," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 22(2-3), pages 115-128, 08-12.
    5. Coelli, Tim J., 1992. "Forecasting Wheat Production Using Shire Level Data," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146430, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    6. baharumshah, ahmad, 1991. "Specification Issues and the Estimation of Supply Equation for Rice in Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 24(December), pages 3-16.
    7. Fisher, Brian S. & Munro, Robyn G., 1983. "Supply Response In The Australian Extensive Livestock And Cropping Industries: A Study Of Intentions And Expectations," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 27(1), pages 1-11, April.
    8. Griffiths, William & Thomson, Graeme & Coelli, Tim, 1995. "Predicting Output From Seemingly Unrelated Area And Yield Equations," 1995 Conference (39th), February 14-16, 1995, Perth, Australia 170821, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    9. Wall, Charles A. & Fisher, Brian S., 1988. "Supply Response and the Theory of Production and Profit Functions," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(03), pages 1-22, December.
    10. Shaw, Ian & Bui-Lan, Anh & Linacre, Nicholas A., 1992. "A model of wheat supply response in Australia's mainland states," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 147319, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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