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Distributed Lags And Barley Acreage Response Analysis

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  • Kym Anderson

Abstract

The need to incorporate production response lags in agricultural supply models is established, and two such lags are considered: the familiar adaptive expectations geometric lag, and a more general polynomial lag. These distributed lag supply response models are applied to Australian barley data for the period 1946-47 to 1968-69. A number of statistical problems associated with the adaptive expectations model are discussed, and in particular it is concluded that lags both in the formation of price expectations and in acreage adjustment should be considered when using geometric lag models. While the polynomial lag model does not provide useful results in the present study, its simplicity and flexibility suggest it may be useful in other studies requiring distributed lag models. The short run and long run price elasticity of barley supply estimates are compared with Gruen et al. [14] supply elasticities for the other major rural commodities, from which it appears that barley has a higher short run elasticity but a lower long run elasticity than wheat, wool and meat.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kym Anderson, 1974. "Distributed Lags And Barley Acreage Response Analysis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 18(2), pages 119-132, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:18:y:1974:i:2:p:119-132
    DOI: j.1467-8489.1974.tb00132.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. White, B.J., 1972. "Supply Projections for the Australian Beef Industry," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 01), pages 1-12, March.
    2. Powell, Alan A. & Gruen, Fred H.G., 1966. "Problems in Aggregate Agricultural Supply Analysis: II - Preliminary Results for Cereals and Wool," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 04), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Luther G. Tweeten & C. Leroy Quance, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 342-352.
    4. T.J. Mules, 1972. "A Supply Function For Dairy Products," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(3), pages 195-203, December.
    5. Mules, T.J., 1972. "A Supply Function For Dairy Products," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-9, December.
    6. Tweeten, Luther G & Quance, C Leroy, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 175-183, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Griffiths, William E. & Anderson, Jock R., 1978. "Specification Of Agricultural Supply Functions - Empirical Evidence On Wheat In Southern N.S.W," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 2-), pages 1-14, August.
    2. Fisher, Brian S. & Munro, Robyn G., 1983. "Supply Response In The Australian Extensive Livestock And Cropping Industries: A Study Of Intentions And Expectations," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-11, April.
    3. Griffiths, William & Thomson, Graeme & Coelli, Tim, 1995. "Predicting Output From Seemingly Unrelated Area And Yield Equations," 1995 Conference (39th), February 14-16, 1995, Perth, Australia 170821, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    4. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hazell, Peter B.R. & Cowie, A.J. & Wan, G.H., 1988. "Changing Variability in Cereal Production in Australia," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 03), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Gellatly, Colin, 1979. "Forecasting N.S.W. Beef Production: An Evaluation of Alternative Techniques," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 02), pages 1-14, August.
    6. Wall, Charles A. & Fisher, Brian S., 1988. "Supply Response and the Theory of Production and Profit Functions," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 0(Number 03), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Coelli, Tim J., 1992. "Forecasting Wheat Production Using Shire Level Data," 1992 Conference (36th), February 10-13, 1992, Canberra, Australia 146430, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.

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