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Distributed Lags And Barley Acreage Response Analysis

Listed author(s):
  • Kym Anderson

The need to incorporate production response lags in agricultural supply models is established, and two such lags are considered: the familiar adaptive expectations geometric lag, and a more general polynomial lag. These distributed lag supply response models are applied to Australian barley data for the period 1946-47 to 1968-69. A number of statistical problems associated with the adaptive expectations model are discussed, and in particular it is concluded that lags both in the formation of price expectations and in acreage adjustment should be considered when using geometric lag models. While the polynomial lag model does not provide useful results in the present study, its simplicity and flexibility suggest it may be useful in other studies requiring distributed lag models. The short run and long run price elasticity of barley supply estimates are compared with Gruen et al. [14] supply elasticities for the other major rural commodities, from which it appears that barley has a higher short run elasticity but a lower long run elasticity than wheat, wool and meat.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1467-8489.1974.tb00132.x
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Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

Volume (Year): 18 (1974)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
Pages: 119-132

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Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:18:y:1974:i:2:p:119-132
DOI: j.1467-8489.1974.tb00132.x
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  1. White, B.J., 1972. "Supply Projections for the Australian Beef Industry," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 40(01), March.
  2. Tweeten, Luther G & Quance, C Leroy, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 175-183, May.
  3. T.J. Mules, 1972. "A Supply Function For Dairy Products," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(3), pages 195-203, December.
  4. Powell, Alan A. & Gruen, Fred H.G., 1966. "Problems in Aggregate Agricultural Supply Analysis: II - Preliminary Results for Cereals and Wool," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(04), December.
  5. Mules, T.J., 1972. "A Supply Function For Dairy Products," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 16(03), December.
  6. Luther G. Tweeten & C. Leroy Quance, 1969. "Positivistic Measures of Aggregate Supply Elasticities: Some New Approaches," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 342-352.
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