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Facilitating decision-making in agriculture by using a system of models

  • Strauss, P.G.
  • Meyer, Ferdinand H.
  • Kirsten, Johann F.

This article presents a deterministic farm-level model developed to link to an existing partial equilibrium sector-level model of the grain and livestock sectors of South Africa. The objective is to create a linked system of models consisting of a sector- and farm-level model with the capability to analyse the likely effects of changes in policies and markets at both the sector and representative farm level in South Africa. A representative farm in the Free State Province is used to validate the farm-level model. The farm-level model is used to simulate a baseline as well as two scenarios of the representative farm for the period 2003 to 2010. Results indicate that the farm-level model simulates the representative farm rather accurately compared to historical data. The baseline and scenario results indicate that the linked system of models can be useful for policy and business decision-makers to analyse the impact of change in policies and markets at both the sector- and farm level.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/44028
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Article provided by Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in its journal Agrekon.

Volume (Year): 47 (2008)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:44028
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  1. Meyer, Ferdinand H. & Westhoff, Patrick C. & Binfield, Julian C.R. & Kirsten, Johann F., 2006. "Model Closure and Price Formation Under Switching Grain Market Regimes in South Africa," 2006 Annual Meeting, August 12-18, 2006, Queensland, Australia 25432, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  2. Kobrich, C. & Rehman, T. & Khan, M., 2003. "Typification of farming systems for constructing representative farm models: two illustrations of the application of multi-variate analyses in Chile and Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 141-157, April.
  3. Reynolds, Sanri & Meyer, Ferdinand & Cutts, Michela & Vink, Nick, 2009. "Modeling Long-term Commodities: the Development of a Simulation Model for the South African Wine Industry within a Partial Equilibrium Framework," Journal of Wine Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 201-218, December.
  4. Held, Larry J. & Helmers, Glenn A., 1981. "Growth And Survival In Wheat Farming: The Impact Of Land Expansion And Borrowing Restraints," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 6(02), December.
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