IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/afjare/156981.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja (Tunisie)

Author

Listed:
  • Chebil, Ali
  • Mtimet, Nadhem
  • Tizaoui, Hassen

Abstract

L’objectif principal de ce travail est d’analyser l’impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja, située au nord-ouest de la Tunisie. Pour ce faire, des modèles de régression multiple ont été estimés pour trois cultures céréalières (blé dur, blé tendre et orge). Les variables explicatives du rendement utilisées dans l’analyse sont celles d’ordre climatique (précipitations et températures) et le progrès technique. La période d’analyse est de 1980 à 2009. Les estimations des modèles de régression semi-logarithmiques ont montré que les rendements des différentes cultures céréalières dépendaient des variables climatiques et du progrès technique. L’analyse de la projection des effets du changement climatique sur les rendements céréaliers dans la zone d’étude, en utilisant les scénarios du modèle HadCM3, a montré que l’impact est important à l’horizon de 2030. Cet impact sera plus accentué pour le blé tendre. Ainsi, l’encouragement de la recherche en matière d’identification de nouvelles techniques agricoles, la diffusion de variétés tolérantes à la diminution des précipitations, dans les périodes critiques de croissance, et de variétés précoces, font partie des stratégies d’adaptation pour la réduction des effets du changement climatique sur le rendement céréalier à long terme...... This article analyzes the potential impact of climate change on cereal productivity in the Béja region of northwestern Tunisia. Multiple regression models were estimated for the cereal crops durum wheat, bread wheat and barley, using annual data from 1980 to 2009. The yield of each crop was used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were mainly related to the climate (precipitation and temperature) and technological progress. The results show that yield variability is affected by climate and technological progress variables. The projected climate change scenarios predicted by the HadCM3 model will have a significant effect on crop yields by 2030, particularly for bread wheat. Some adaptation strategies that could alleviate climate change effects on cereal crops yields in the long run are the identification of new agricultural practices in this area, the widespread diffusion of varieties that can tolerate rainfall shortage during the critical periods, and the adoption of early maturing varieties.

Suggested Citation

  • Chebil, Ali & Mtimet, Nadhem & Tizaoui, Hassen, 2011. "Impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja (Tunisie)," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:afjare:156981
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.156981
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/156981/files/Chebil_06_02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.156981?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 51-64, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gore Bi Boh Nestor & Gnamien Yah Gwladys & Yao Kouakou Abessika Georges & Akaffou Doffou Sélastique & Zoro Bi Irie Arsène, 2018. "Effect of Sowing Dates on the Productivity of Oilseed Citrullus Lanatus," Journal of Agriculture and Crops, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(11), pages 136-140, 11-2018.
    2. Lokonon, Boris Odilon & Savadogo, Kimseyinga & Mbaye, Ahmadou, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of climate shocks on farm performance and adaptation responses in the Niger basin of Benin," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Zouabi, Oussama & Kahia, Montassar, 2014. "The direct effect of climate change on the cereal production in Tunisia: A micro-spatial analysis," MPRA Paper 64441, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zeenatul Islam & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, 2017. "Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis," Discussion Papers Series 579, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. Mathieu Juliot Mpabe Bodjongo, 2022. "Climate Change, Cotton Prices and Production in Cameroon," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 22-50, February.
    3. Kung, Chih-Chun & Mu, Jianhong E., 2019. "Prospect of China's renewable energy development from pyrolysis and biochar applications under climate change," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Deressa, T. & Hassan, Rashid M. & Poonyth, Daneswar, 2005. "Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: The case of sugar-cane growing regions," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Soltani, Shiva & Mosavi, Seyed Habibollah & Saghaian, Sayed H. & Azhdari, Somayeh & Alamdarlo, Hamed N. & Khalilian, Sadegh, 2023. "Climate change and energy use efficiency in arid and semiarid agricultural areas: A case study of Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
    6. Xiaoyong CAO & Chih-Chun KUNG & Yuelong WANG, 2017. "An environmental and economic evaluation of carbon sequestration from pyrolysis and biochar application in China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 63(12), pages 569-578.
    7. Vera-Diaz, Maria del Carmen & Kaufmann, Robert K. & Nepstad, Daniel C. & Schlesinger, Peter, 2008. "An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: The climatic, edaphic, and economic determinants," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 420-431, April.
    8. Mosavi, Seyed Habibollah & Soltani, Shiva & Khalilian, Sadegh, 2020. "Coping with climate change in agriculture: Evidence from Hamadan-Bahar plain in Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    9. Lotfali Azari & Aliakbar Naji Meidani & Narges Salehnia, 2024. "Predicting the Impact of Climate Conditions on the Economic Production of Iranian Provinces with The Approach of Random Forest Algorithm," Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Business, University of Tabriz, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34.
    10. Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Khorshed Alam & Jeff Gow, 2014. "Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: An econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 405-416.
    11. repec:aer:wpaper:342 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jiang, Qiang, 2009. "An agro-economic model to analyse climate change impacts on farmers' income," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 48172, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    13. Chiu, Mei-Shiu, 2013. "Tensions in implementing the “energy-conservation/carbon-reduction” policy in Taiwanese culture," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 415-425.
    14. Kung, Chih-Chun & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Xiong, Kai & Yu, Jiangli, 2019. "Effectiveness of crop residuals in ethanol and pyrolysis-based electricity production: A stochastic analysis under uncertain climate impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-276.
    15. Ahmad, Munir & Nawaz, Muhammad & Iqbal, Muhammad & Javed, Sajid, 2014. "Analysing the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Productivity in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 72861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Fang, Ming & Jin, Songqing & Deininger, Klaus W., 2022. "Climate, land productivity and agricultural adaptation in Ukraine," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322437, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Kung, Chih-Chun & Wu, Tao, 2021. "Influence of water allocation on bioenergy production under climate change: A stochastic mathematical programming approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    18. Kung, Chih-Chun & Zhang, Ning, 2015. "Renewable energy from pyrolysis using crops and agricultural residuals: An economic and environmental evaluation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 90(P2), pages 1532-1544.
    19. Rahman, Sanzidur & Anik, Asif Reza, 2020. "Productivity and efficiency impact of climate change and agroecology on Bangladesh agriculture," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    20. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    21. Dan Wang & Yu Hao & Jianpei Wang, 2018. "Impact Of Climate Change On China’S Rice Production — An Empirical Estimation Based On Panel Data (1979–2011) From China’S Main Rice-Producing Areas," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(03), pages 535-553, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:afjare:156981. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.