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Impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja (Tunisie)

Author

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  • Chebil, Ali
  • Mtimet, Nadhem
  • Tizaoui, Hassen

Abstract

L’objectif principal de ce travail est d’analyser l’impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja, située au nord-ouest de la Tunisie. Pour ce faire, des modèles de régression multiple ont été estimés pour trois cultures céréalières (blé dur, blé tendre et orge). Les variables explicatives du rendement utilisées dans l’analyse sont celles d’ordre climatique (précipitations et températures) et le progrès technique. La période d’analyse est de 1980 à 2009. Les estimations des modèles de régression semi-logarithmiques ont montré que les rendements des différentes cultures céréalières dépendaient des variables climatiques et du progrès technique. L’analyse de la projection des effets du changement climatique sur les rendements céréaliers dans la zone d’étude, en utilisant les scénarios du modèle HadCM3, a montré que l’impact est important à l’horizon de 2030. Cet impact sera plus accentué pour le blé tendre. Ainsi, l’encouragement de la recherche en matière d’identification de nouvelles techniques agricoles, la diffusion de variétés tolérantes à la diminution des précipitations, dans les périodes critiques de croissance, et de variétés précoces, font partie des stratégies d’adaptation pour la réduction des effets du changement climatique sur le rendement céréalier à long terme...... This article analyzes the potential impact of climate change on cereal productivity in the Béja region of northwestern Tunisia. Multiple regression models were estimated for the cereal crops durum wheat, bread wheat and barley, using annual data from 1980 to 2009. The yield of each crop was used as the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were mainly related to the climate (precipitation and temperature) and technological progress. The results show that yield variability is affected by climate and technological progress variables. The projected climate change scenarios predicted by the HadCM3 model will have a significant effect on crop yields by 2030, particularly for bread wheat. Some adaptation strategies that could alleviate climate change effects on cereal crops yields in the long run are the identification of new agricultural practices in this area, the widespread diffusion of varieties that can tolerate rainfall shortage during the critical periods, and the adoption of early maturing varieties.

Suggested Citation

  • Chebil, Ali & Mtimet, Nadhem & Tizaoui, Hassen, 2011. "Impact du changement climatique sur la productivité des cultures céréalières dans la région de Béja (Tunisie)," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 6(2), pages 1-11, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:afjare:156981
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.156981
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chang, Ching-Cheng, 2002. "The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 51-64, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gore Bi Boh Nestor & Gnamien Yah Gwladys & Yao Kouakou Abessika Georges & Akaffou Doffou Sélastique & Zoro Bi Irie Arsène, 2018. "Effect of Sowing Dates on the Productivity of Oilseed Citrullus Lanatus," Journal of Agriculture and Crops, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(11), pages 136-140, 11-2018.
    2. Lokonon, Boris Odilon & Savadogo, Kimseyinga & Mbaye, Ahmadou, 2015. "Assessing the impacts of climate shocks on farm performance and adaptation responses in the Niger basin of Benin," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, September.
    3. Zouabi, Oussama & Kahia, Montassar, 2014. "The direct effect of climate change on the cereal production in Tunisia: A micro-spatial analysis," MPRA Paper 64441, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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