On the rebound: estimating direct rebound effects for Australian households

Reducing dependence on fossil fuels by decreasing energy consumption is a common environmental policy. One mechanism used to achieve this is to encourage increased energy efficiency. However, improving efficiency may have an opposing effect and cause an increase in energy consumption if the intensity of use changes. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect. We estimate direct rebound effects for energy use in Australia based on both aggregate residential energy use data and on household energy expenditure data. Our approach implements a new methodology developed by Hunt and Ryan (2014, Catching on the rebound: Why price elasticities are generally inappropriate measures of rebound effects. Surrey Energy Economics Discussion Paper Series SEEDS 148; 2015, Energy Economics 50, 273) that explicitly relates energy service use with energy source demand and directly incorporates measures of efficiency changes. The results indicate that the rebound effect is relatively high for energy use by Australian households. Due to the unique nature of our household data set, we can examine the influence of demographic and housing characteristics. We find that lowincome households and households with vulnerable members have the largest rebound effects. The relatively large rebound effects found here suggest that consumers gain from efficiency by improved energy services, and thus, policy targeting energy efficiency is not likely to be successful at reducing energy consumption.