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Sailing away from Malthus: intercontinental trade and European economic growth, 1500–1800

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  • Nuno Palma

    (Departments of Economic History and Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science, and Centre for Globalisation Research, School of Business and Management, Queen Mary, University of London)

Abstract

What was the contribution of intercontinental trade to the development of the European early modern economies? Previous attempts to answer this question have focused on static measures of the weight of trade in the aggregate economy at a given point in time, or on the comparison of the income of specific imperial nations just before and after the loss of their overseas empire. These static accounting approaches are inappropriate if dynamic and spillover effects are at work, as seems likely. In this paper, I use a panel dataset of 10 countries in a dynamic model that allows for spillover effects, multiple channels of causality, persistence, and country-specific fixed effects. Using this dynamic model, simulations suggest that in the counterfactual absence of intercontinental trade, rates of early modern economic growth and urbanization would have been moderately to substantially lower. For the four main long-distance traders, by 1800, the real wage was, depending on the country, 6.1–22.7 % higher, and urbanization was 4.0–11.7 percentage points higher, than they would have otherwise been. For some countries, the effect was quite pronounced: in The Netherlands between 1600 and 1750, for instance, intercontinental trade was responsible for most of the observed increase in real wages and for a large share of the observed increase in urbanization. At the same time, countries which did not engage in long-distance trade would have had real wage increases in the order of 5.4–17.8 % and urbanization increases of 2.2–3.2 percentage points, should they have done so at the same level as the four main traders. Intercontinental trade appears to have played an important role for all nations that engaged in it, with the exception of France. These conclusions stand in contrast to the earlier literature that uses a partial equilibrium and static accounting approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Nuno Palma, 2016. "Sailing away from Malthus: intercontinental trade and European economic growth, 1500–1800," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 10(2), pages 129-149, may.
  • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:10:y:2016:i:2:p:129-149
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-015-0126-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Leticia Arroyo Abad & Nuno Palma, 2020. "The Fruits of El Dorado: The Global Impact of American Precious Metals," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2003, Economics, The University of Manchester, revised May 2021.
    2. Ernesto Dal Bó & Karolina Hutková & Lukas Leucht & Noam Yuchtman, 2022. "Dissecting the Sinews of Power: International Trade and the Rise of Britain’s Fiscal-Military State, 1689-1823," NBER Working Papers 30754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Patrick K O'Brien & Nuno Palma, 2020. "Danger to the Old Lady of Threadneedle Street? The Bank Restriction Act and the regime shift to paper money, 1797–1821," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 24(2), pages 390-426.
    4. Patrick K. O'Brien & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Not an ordinary bank but a great engine of state: The Bank of England and the British economy, 1694–1844," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(1), pages 305-329, February.
    5. Nuno Palma, 2017. "Harbingers of modernity: monetary injections and European economic growth, 1492–1790," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 21(4), pages 435-436.
    6. Dal Bo, Ernesto & Hutkova, Karolina & Leucht, Lukas & Yuchtman, Noam Meir, 2023. "Dissecting the sinews of power: international trade and the rise of Britain's fiscal-military state, 1689-1823," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121310, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Carlos Santiago-Caballero, 2018. "The Napoleonic Wars: A Watershed in Spanish History?," Working Papers 0130, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    8. M. Aykut Attar, 2023. "Technology and survival in preindustrial England: a Malthusian view," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2071-2110, October.
    9. Fochesato, Mattia, 2018. "Origins of Europe’s north-south divide: Population changes, real wages and the ‘little divergence’ in early modern Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-131.
    10. Nuno Palma & André C. Silva, 2024. "Spending A Windfall," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(1), pages 283-313, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early modern economic growth Malthusian model Intercontinental trade Economics of empires;

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N74 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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