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Unintended Consequences of Carbon Policies: Transportation Fuels, Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation

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  • Stephen P. Holland, Jonathan E. Hughes, Christopher R. Knittel, Nathan C. Parker

Abstract

Renewable fuel standards, low carbon fuel standards, and ethanol subsidies are popular policies to incentivize ethanol production and reduce emissions from transportation. Compared to carbon trading, these policies lead to large shifts in agricultural activity and unexpected social costs. We simulate the 2022 Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and find that energy crop production increases by 39 million acres. Land-use costs from erosion and habitat loss are between $277 and $693 million. A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) and ethanol subsidies have similar effects while costs under an equivalent cap and trade (CAT) system are essentially zero. In addition, the alternatives to CAT magnify errors in assigning emissions rates to fuels and can over or under-incentivize innovation. These results highlight the potential negative effects of the RFS, LCFS and subsidies, effects that would be less severe under a CAT policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen P. Holland, Jonathan E. Hughes, Christopher R. Knittel, Nathan C. Parker, 2015. "Unintended Consequences of Carbon Policies: Transportation Fuels, Land-Use, Emissions, and Innovation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej36-3-hollan
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Banban & Pizer, William A. & Munnings, Clayton, 2022. "Price limits in a tradable performance standard," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Fan, Jin & He, Haonan & Wu, Yanrui, 2016. "Personal carbon trading and subsidies for hybrid electric vehicles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 164-173.
    3. Ye, Fanglin & Paulson, Nicholas & Khanna, Madhu, 2022. "Are renewable energy policies effective to promote technological change? The role of induced technological risk," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Xidong Zhang & Juan Zhang & Chengbo Yang, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Agricultural Carbon Emissions in China, 2000–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Plevin, Richard J. & Delucchi, Mark A. & O’Hare, Michael, 2017. "Fuel carbon intensity standards may not mitigate climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 93-97.
    6. Gabriel E Lade & C -Y Cynthia Lin Lawell & Aaron Smith, 2018. "Policy Shocks and Market-Based Regulations: Evidence from the Renewable Fuel Standard," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 707-731.
    7. Lade, Gabriel E. & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia, 2015. "The design and economics of low carbon fuel standards," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 91-99.
    8. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt, 2017. "The causes of two-way U.S.–Brazil ethanol trade and the consequences for greenhouse gas emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2045-2053.
    9. repec:ags:aaea22:335787 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Korting, Christina & Just, David R., 2017. "Demystifying RINs: A partial equilibrium model of U.S. biofuel markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 353-362.
    11. Lu, Yunguo & Zhang, Lin, 2022. "National mitigation policy and the competitiveness of Chinese firms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    12. Hoyle, Aaron & Peters, Jotham & Jaccard, Mark & Rhodes, Ekaterina, 2024. "Additional or accidental? Simulating interactions between a low-carbon fuel standard and other climate policy instruments in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    13. Wang, Kunlun & Zheng, Leven J. & Zhang, Justin Zuopeng & Yao, Hongjiang, 2022. "The impact of promoting new energy vehicles on carbon intensity: Causal evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    14. Khanna, Madhu & Wang, Weiwei & Hudiburg, Tara & DeLucia, Evan, 2016. "The Economic Cost of Including the Indirect Land Use Factor in Low Carbon Fuel Policy: Efficiency and Distributional Implications," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235774, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2023. "What does a low-carbon fuel standard contribute to a policy mix? An interdisciplinary review of evidence and research gaps," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 54-63.
    16. Wang, Min & Zhao, Jinhua, 2018. "Are renewable energy policies climate friendly? The role of capacity constraints and market power," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 41-60.
    17. Raburn, Samuel, 2024. "Optimal Quality Standards for Credence Goods: An Application to Organic Strawberries and the Commercial Availability Clause Loophole," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 343623, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Yeh, Sonia & Witcover, Julie & Lade, Gabriel E. & Sperling, Daniel, 2016. "A review of low carbon fuel policies: Principles, program status and future directions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 220-234.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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