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The Elasticity of Aggregate Output with Respect to Capital and Labor

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  • Dietrich Vollrath

Abstract

It is often assumed that the elasticity of GDP with respect to capital is one-third, but this assumes zero markups and an aggregate production function. I estimate the elasticity allowing markups to vary by industry and with a rich input-output structure. Assumptions about capital costs provide bounds on elasticity. In the United States from 1948–1995, the capital elasticity ranged from 0.19–0.32 and shifted to 0.24–0.37 by 1996–2018. Excluding housing or decapitalizing intellectual property lowers bounds to as low as 0.11–0.26. Based on these elasticities, common estimates of total factor productivity growth represent a lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Dietrich Vollrath, 2024. "The Elasticity of Aggregate Output with Respect to Capital and Labor," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 470-504, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:16:y:2024:i:4:p:470-504
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    2. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    3. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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