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High School Majors and Future Earnings

Author

Listed:
  • Gordon B. Dahl
  • Dan-Olof Rooth
  • Anders Stenberg

Abstract

We study how high school majors affect adult earnings using a regression discontinuity design. In Sweden students are admitted to majors in tenth grade based on their preference rankings and ninth grade GPA. We find engineering, natural science, and business majors yield higher earnings than social science and humanities, with major-specific returns also varying based on next-best alternatives. There is either a zero or a negative return to completing an academic program for students with a second-best nonacademic major. Most of the differences in adult earnings can be attributed to differences in occupation, and to a lesser extent, college major.

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon B. Dahl & Dan-Olof Rooth & Anders Stenberg, 2023. "High School Majors and Future Earnings," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 351-382, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejapp:v:15:y:2023:i:1:p:351-82
    DOI: 10.1257/app.20210292
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stenberg, Anders & Tudor, Simona, 2023. "Field of Study and Mental Health in Adulthood," SOFI Working Papers in Labour Economics 1/2024, Stockholm University, Swedish Institute for Social Research.
    2. Larsson Taghizadeh, Jonas & Österman, Marcus, 2025. "Choosing the right path: The effects of pursuing general versus vocational secondary education on dropout risk and youth inactivity," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. Ludger Woessmann, 2024. "Skills and Earnings: A Multidimensional Perspective on Human Capital," CESifo Working Paper Series 11428, CESifo.
    4. John Eric Humphries & Juanna Schr¿ter Joensen & Gregory F. Veramendi, 2025. "Complementarities in High School and College Investments," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2446, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    5. Bastani, Spencer & Karlsson, Kristina & Kolsrud, Jonas & Waldenström, Daniel, 2024. "The Capital Advantage: Comparing Returns to Ability in the Labor and Capital Markets," Working Papers in Economics and Statistics 1/2024, Linnaeus University, School of Business and Economics, Department of Economics and Statistics.
    6. Ollikainen, Jani-Petteri & Pekkarinen, Tuomas & Uusitalo, Roope & Virtanen, Hanna, 2024. "Effect of secondary education on cognitive and non-cognitive skills," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Sarah Cattan & Kjell Salvanes & Emma Tominey, 2022. "First Generation Elite: The Role of School Networks," Working Papers 2022-028, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    8. Edmark, Karin & Hussain, Iftikhar & Haelermans, Carla, 2024. "Unpacking the impact of voucher schools: evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2024:17, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    9. Edmark, Karin, 2025. "The impact of local supply of upper secondary field of study," Working Paper Series 2025:13, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    10. Manuel, Nick, 2024. "Does the labour market value field of study specific knowledge? An alignment score based approach," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    11. Fumiya Uchikoshi & Hirofumi Miwa & Yoshikuni Ono, 2025. "Gendered Expectations for College Applications: Experimental Evidence from a Gender Inegalitarian Education Context," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(5), pages 1-27, August.
    12. Aalto, Aino-Maija & Müller, Dagmar & Tilley, J. Lucas, 2023. "From epidemic to pandemic: Effects of the COVID-19 outbreak on high school program choices in Sweden," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    13. David J. Deming & Mikko I. Silliman, 2024. "Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 32908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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