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The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy: Using the Future Elderly Model to Estimate Implications for Social Security and Medicare

Author

Listed:
  • Dana P. Goldman
  • Peter R. Orszag

Abstract

Mortality gradients by education and income have been rising in the United States and elsewhere. However, their impact on Social Security progressivity has received relatively little attention, and the impact on Medicare has received effectively none. This paper uses the Future Elderly Model to estimate the effects of increased mortality gaps on the progressivity of Social Security and Medicare for those born between 1928 and 1990. It finds significant reductions in progressivity of both programs if current mortality trends persist and noticeable effects on total program costs. The effects are large enough to warrant more attention from both policy-makers and researchers.

Suggested Citation

  • Dana P. Goldman & Peter R. Orszag, 2014. "The Growing Gap in Life Expectancy: Using the Future Elderly Model to Estimate Implications for Social Security and Medicare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 230-233, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:5:p:230-33
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.230
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Goldman, Dana & Smith, James P., 2011. "The increasing value of education to health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(10), pages 1728-1737, May.
    2. Peter Diamond, 2004. "Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Crimmins, Eileen M. & Saito, Yasuhiko, 2001. "Trends in healthy life expectancy in the United States, 1970-1990: gender, racial, and educational differences," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 52(11), pages 1629-1641, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weidong Tian & Zimu Zhu, 2020. "A Portfolio Choice Problem Under Risk Capacity Constraint," Papers 2005.13741, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    2. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 1-30, May.
    3. Teresa Ghilarducci & Siavash Radpour & Jessica Forden, 2023. "No Rest for The Weary: Measuring the Changing Distribution of Wealth in The US," SCEPA working paper series. 2023-02, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    4. McCarthy, David G. & Wang, Po-Lin, 2021. "Pooling mortality risk in Eurozone state pension liabilities: An application of a Bayesian coherent multi-population cohort-based mortality model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 459-485.
    5. Jiaxin Shi & Christian Dudel & Christiaan Monden & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2022. "Inequalities in retirement lifespan in the United States," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2022-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Jing Guo & Marilyn Moon, 2018. "Lifetime Taxpayer Contributions And Benefits Of Medicare And Social Security," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 483-492, July.
    7. Bauer, Daniel & Lakdawalla, Darius & Reif, Julian, 2025. "Health risk and the value of life," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    8. David McCarthy, 2021. "80 will be the new 70: Old‐age mortality postponement in the United States and its likely effect on the finances of the OASI program," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(2), pages 381-412, June.
    9. Gaudette Étienne & Tysinger Bryan & Cassil Alwyn & Goldman Dana P., 2015. "Health and Health Care of Medicare Beneficiaries in 2030," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 75-96, December.
    10. Bram Wouterse & Arjen Hussem & Albert Wong, 2022. "The risk protection and redistribution effects of long‐term care co‐payments," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(1), pages 161-186, March.
    11. Daniel Bauer & Darius Lakdawalla & Julian Reif, 2018. "Mortality Risk, Insurance, and the Value of Life," NBER Working Papers 25055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Society," NBER Working Papers 19930, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Li Tan & Cory Koedel, 2019. "The Effects of Differential Income Replacement and Mortality on U.S. Social Security Redistribution," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(2), pages 613-637, October.
    14. Dianna M. Smith & Alison Heppenstall & Monique Campbell, 2021. "Estimating Health over Space and Time: A Review of Spatial Microsimulation Applied to Public Health," J, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, June.
    15. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Swimming with wealthy sharks: longevity, volatility and the value of risk pooling," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 217-246, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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