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Forecasting Comparison of Long Term Component Dynamic Models for Realized Covariance Matrices

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  • Luc Bauwens
  • Manuela Braione
  • Giuseppe Storti

Abstract

Novel model specifications that include a time-varying long-run component in the dynamics of realized covariance matrices are proposed. The modelling framework allows the secular component to enter the model either additively or as a multiplicative factor, and to be specified parametrically, using a MIDAS filter, or non-parametrically. Estimation is performed by maximizing a Wishart quasi-likelihood function. The one-step ahead forecasting performance is assessed by means of three approaches: model confidence sets, minimum variance portfolios and Value-at-Risk. The results show that the proposed models outperform benchmarks incorporating a constant long-run component both in and out-of-sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Luc Bauwens & Manuela Braione & Giuseppe Storti, 2016. "Forecasting Comparison of Long Term Component Dynamic Models for Realized Covariance Matrices," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 123-124, pages 103-134.
  • Handle: RePEc:adr:anecst:y:2016:i:123-124:p:103-134
    DOI: 10.15609/annaeconstat2009.123-124.0103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Gribisch, Bastian & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2012. "The conditional autoregressive Wishart model for multivariate stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 211-223.
    2. Luc Bauwens & Christian M. Hafner & Diane Pierret, 2013. "Multivariate Volatility Modeling Of Electricity Futures," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 743-761, August.
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    4. Laurent, Sébastien & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K. & Violante, Francesco, 2013. "On loss functions and ranking forecasting performances of multivariate volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(1), pages 1-10.
    5. BAUWENS, Luc & STORTI, Giuseppe & VIOLANTE, Francesco, 2012. "Dynamic conditional correlation models for realized covariance matrices," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2012060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Diaa Noureldin & Neil Shephard & Kevin Sheppard, 2012. "Multivariate high‐frequency‐based volatility (HEAVY) models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 907-933, September.
    7. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marchese, Malvina & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Tamvakis, Michael & Di Iorio, Francesca, 2020. "Forecasting crude oil and refined products volatilities and correlations: New evidence from fractionally integrated multivariate GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Bauwens, Luc & Braione, Manuela & Storti, Giuseppe, 2017. "A dynamic component model for forecasting high-dimensional realized covariance matrices," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 40-61.
    3. Conrad, Christian & Stuermer, Karin, 2017. "On the economic determinants of optimal stock-bond portfolios: international evidence," Working Papers 0636, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    4. Bauwens, Luc & Xu, Yongdeng, 2019. "DCC-HEAVY: a multivariate GARCH model based on realized variances and correlations," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2019/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Braione, Manuela, 2016. "A time-varying long run HEAVY model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 36-44.
    6. Xin Jin & John M. Maheu & Qiao Yang, 2019. "Bayesian parametric and semiparametric factor models for large realized covariance matrices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(5), pages 641-660, August.
    7. Naimoli, Antonio & Storti, Giuseppe, 2019. "Heterogeneous component multiplicative error models for forecasting trading volumes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1332-1355.
    8. Vassallo, Danilo & Buccheri, Giuseppe & Corsi, Fulvio, 2021. "A DCC-type approach for realized covariance modeling with score-driven dynamics," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 569-586.
    9. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    10. Harry Vander Elst & David Veredas, 2017. "Smoothing it Out: Empirical and Simulation Results for Disentangled Realized Covariances," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 15(1), pages 106-138.
    11. Gribisch, Bastian & Hartkopf, Jan Patrick & Liesenfeld, Roman, 2020. "Factor state–space models for high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-20.
    12. Bauwens, Luc & Otranto, Edoardo, 2020. "Modelling Realized Covariance Matrices: a Class of Hadamard Exponential Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2020034, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Realized Covariance; Component Dynamic Models; MIDAS; Minimum Variance Portfolio; Model Confidence Set; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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