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Climate change adaptation in Africa : a microeconomic analysis of livestock choice

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  • Seo, Sungno Niggol
  • Mendelsohn, Robert

Abstract

This paper uses quantitative methods to examine the way African farmers have adapted livestock management to the range of climates found across the African continent. The authors use logit analysis to estimate whether farmers adopt livestock. They then use three econometric models to examine which species farmers choose: a primary choice multinomial logit, an optimal portfolio multinomial logit, and a demand system multivariate probit. Comparing the results of the three methods of estimating species selection reveals that the three approaches yield similar results. Using data from over 9,000 African livestock farmers in 10 countries, the analysis finds that farmers are more likely to choose to have livestock as temperatures increase and as precipitation decreases. Across all methods of estimating choice, livestock farmers in warmer locations are less likely to choose beef cattle and chickens and more likely to choose goats and sheep. As precipitation increases, cattle and sheep decrease but goats and chickens increase. The authors simulate the way farmers'choices might change with a set of uniform climate changes and a set of climate model scenarios. The uniform scenarios predict that warming and drying would increase livestock ownership but that increases in precipitation would decrease it. The climate scenarios predict a decrease in the probability of beef cattle and an increase in the probability of sheep and goats, and they predict that more heat-tolerant animals will dominate the future African landscape.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4277.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4277

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Related research

Keywords: Livestock&Animal Husbandry; Wildlife Resources; Peri-Urban Communities; Rural Urban Linkages; Climate Change;

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References

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  1. Marcel Fafchamps & Chris Udry & Katherine Czukas, . "Drought and Saving in West Africa: Are Livestock a Buffer Stock?," Working Papers, Stanford University, Department of Economics 97013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  2. Train,Kenneth E., 2009. "Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521766555.
  3. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), March.
  4. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
  5. Richard Klein & Robert Nicholls & Nobuo Mimura, 1999. "Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Can the IPCC Technical Guidelines be applied?," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 239-252, September.
  6. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
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Cited by:
  1. World Bank, 2007. "Environment Matters at the World Bank, 2007 Annual Review : Climate Change and Adaptation," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13096, August.
  2. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "An analysis of livestock choice : adapting to climate change in Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4164, The World Bank.
  3. Seo, Sungno Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "The impact of climate change on livestock management in Africa : a structural Ricardian analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4279, The World Bank.

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