IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v12y2022i12p2123-d999729.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: A Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis, 1961–2013

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Xiang

    (School of Business Administration, Northeastern University, Hunnan Campus, 195 Chuangxin Road, Hunnan District, Shenyang 110169, China)

  • Tariq H. Malik

    (International Centre for Organization & Innovation Studies, Liaoning University, 301 Administration Building, Huanggu District, Shenyang 110036, China)

  • Jack W. Hou

    (School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 1037 Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074, China
    Department of Economics, California State University, Long Beach, CA 90840-4607, USA)

  • Jiliang Ma

    (Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, No.12 Zhongguancun Nandajie Street, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract

The literature has mixed findings regarding the impact of climate change on agricultural production, probably due to different choices of dependent variables. Based on panel data analysis of 140 countries from an extended period, i.e., 1961 to 2013, this study applies the explicit method of using TFP as the dependent variable, but also delivers estimations with the implicit approach of using agricultural output as the dependent variable, so as to be able to directly compare the results with the mainstream trends in the existing literature. We found that using agricultural TFP as the dependent variable generates more consistent and robust results. We also found a strong negative impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. A one-unit downward deviation of precipitation (i.e., drought) and one unit of upward deviation of temperature (i.e., global warming) decrease the TFP by 0.530 and 0.494, respectively. As we have one of the largest sample sizes when it comes to studying the effect of climate change, we carried out an exploration by dividing the sample into different categories of developed vs. developing countries and cold vs. warm climates, as well as by splitting the time series into two distinct periods. We found that climate change has had a heterogeneous impact on countries with different development levels, with negative impacts on developing countries and positive effects on developed countries, which leads to the rising concern of the impact of climate change on inequality. This heterogeneity and the uneven impact found in this study strongly suggest the need for countries to work together to coordinate and mitigate these adverse effects rather than to adapt to the situation by focusing on the input variations, as the latter will increase the inequality effect of climate change and add to an already unstable global environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Xiang & Tariq H. Malik & Jack W. Hou & Jiliang Ma, 2022. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Total Factor Productivity: A Cross-Country Panel Data Analysis, 1961–2013," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:12:p:2123-:d:999729
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/12/2123/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/12/12/2123/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    2. Richard S J Tol, 2018. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(1), pages 4-25.
    3. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2006. "The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(1), pages 113-125, February.
    4. Pierre Mérel & Matthew Gammans, 2021. "Climate Econometrics: Can the Panel Approach Account for Long‐Run Adaptation?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1207-1238, August.
    5. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    6. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    7. Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke, 2009. "Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 8769.
    8. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    9. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    10. Chen, Shuai & Gong, Binlei, 2021. "Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    12. Giulio Fusco, 2021. "Twenty Years of Common Agricultural Policy in Europe: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-15, September.
    13. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, March.
    14. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    15. Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Williams, Larry, 2006. "The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 159-178, April.
    16. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Christopher J O’Donnell, 2018. "A new look at the decomposition of agricultural productivity growth incorporating weather effects," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(2), pages 1-21, February.
    17. Robert G. Chambers & Simone Pieralli, 2020. "The Sources of Measured US Agricultural Productivity Growth: Weather, Technological Change, and Adaptation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1198-1226, August.
    18. Barrios, Salvador & Ouattara, Bazoumana & Strobl, Eric, 2008. "The impact of climatic change on agricultural production: Is it different for Africa?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 287-298, August.
    19. Ortiz-Bobea, Ariel & Tack, Jesse B., 2018. "Another genetic yield revolution is needed to offset climate change effects on U.S. maize," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274380, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    21. Edziah, Bless Kofi & Sun, Huaping & Adom, Philip Kofi & Wang, Feng & Agyemang, Andrew Osei, 2022. "The role of exogenous technological factors and renewable energy in carbon dioxide emission reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 1418-1428.
    22. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea & Toby R. Ault & Carlos M. Carrillo & Robert G. Chambers & David B. Lobell, 2021. "Anthropogenic climate change has slowed global agricultural productivity growth," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 306-312, April.
    23. Kelly, David L. & Kolstad, Charles D. & Mitchell, Glenn T., 2005. "Adjustment costs from environmental change," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 468-495, November.
    24. Ackerman, Frank & Munitz, Charles, 2012. "Climate damages in the FUND model: A disaggregated analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 219-224.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frederick Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2018. "Climate Change Impacts on Farmland Values in the Southeast United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    2. Kaixing Huang, 2015. "The Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture: the Role of Adaptation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2015-20, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    3. Steven Passel & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn, 2017. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on European Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(4), pages 725-760, August.
    4. Huang, K., 2018. "How Large is the Potential Economic Benefit of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change?," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 277238, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    5. Arellano Gonzalez, Jesus, 2018. "Estimating climate change damages in data scarce and non-competitive settings: a novel version of the Ricardian approach with an application to Mexico," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274010, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Frijters, Paul & Lalji, Chitwan & Pakrashi, Debayan, 2020. "Daily weather only has small effects on wellbeing in the US," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 747-762.
    7. Emanuele Massetti & Steven Van Passel & Camila Apablaza, 2018. "Is Western European Agriculture Resilient to High Temperatures?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7286, CESifo.
    8. Cristina Cattaneo & Emanuele Massetti, 2019. "Does Harmful Climate Increase Or Decrease Migration? Evidence From Rural Households In Nigeria," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(04), pages 1-36, November.
    9. Francisco Costa & Fabien Forge & Jason Garred & João Paulo Pessoa, 2023. "The Impact of Climate Change on Risk and Return in Indian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 85(1), pages 1-27, May.
    10. Meyer, Kevin & Keiser, David A., 2016. "Adapting to Climate Change Through Tile Drainage: A Structural Ricardian Analysis," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235932, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Meyer, Kevin Michael, 2017. "Three essays on environmental and resource economics," ISU General Staff Papers 201701010800006585, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    12. Severen, Christopher & Costello, Christopher & Deschênes, Olivier, 2018. "A Forward-Looking Ricardian Approach: Do land markets capitalize climate change forecasts?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 235-254.
    13. Martina Bozzola & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn & Fabian Capitanio, 2018. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 57-79.
    14. Xun Su & Minpeng Chen, 2022. "Econometric Approaches That Consider Farmers’ Adaptation in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, October.
    15. Richard S.J. Tol, 2020. "The Economic Impact of Weather and Climate," Video Library 2094, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Robert G. Chambers & Simone Pieralli, 2020. "The Sources of Measured US Agricultural Productivity Growth: Weather, Technological Change, and Adaptation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(4), pages 1198-1226, August.
    17. Bareille, François & Chakir, Raja, 2023. "The impact of climate change on agriculture: A repeat-Ricardian analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Jianhong E. Mu & Benjamin M. Sleeter & John T. Abatzoglou & John M. Antle, 2017. "Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 144(2), pages 329-345, September.
    19. Kaixing Huang & Nicholas Sim, 2021. "Adaptation May Reduce Climate Damage in Agriculture by Two Thirds," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 47-71, February.
    20. Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2020. "The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 934-959, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:12:y:2022:i:12:p:2123-:d:999729. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.