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Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations

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  • Kabubo-Mariara, Jane
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

    Volume (Year): 68 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 7 (May)
    Pages: 1915-1924

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2009:i:7:p:1915-1924

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

    Related research

    Keywords: Climate change Livestock Revenue Impact Adaptation Kenya;

    References

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    1. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-71, September.
    2. Mccarthy, Nancy & Di Gregorio, Monica, 2007. "Climate variability and flexibility in resource access: the case of pastoral mobility in Northern Kenya," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 403-421, June.
    3. John G. McPeak, 2003. "Analyzing and Addressing Localized Degradation in the Commons," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(4), pages 515-536.
    4. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4163, The World Bank.
    5. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2003. "The linkages between property rights, migration, and productivity: the case of Kajiado District, Kenya," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 621-636, October.
    6. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4601, The World Bank.
    7. Stefan Dercon, 1996. "Wealth, risk and activity choices: cattle in Western Tanzania," CSAE Working Paper Series 1996-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. Fafchamps, Marcel, 1998. "The Tragedy of the Commons, Livestock Cycles and Sustainability," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 7(3), pages 384-423, October.
    9. Marcel Fafchamps & Chris Udry & Katherine Czukas, . "Drought and Saving in West Africa: Are Livestock a Buffer Stock?," Working Papers 97013, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    10. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1312-15, December.
    11. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
    12. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4305, The World Bank.
    13. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
    14. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2005. "Herders response to acute land pressure under changing property rights: some insights from Kajiado District, Kenya," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 67-85, February.
    15. Katsushi Imai, 2003. "Is Livestock Important for Risk Behaviour and Activity Choice of Rural Households? Evidence from Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 12(2), pages 271-295, June.
    16. John K. Horowitz & John Quiggin, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1044-1045, September.
    17. McPeak, John, 2006. "Confronting the risk of asset loss: What role do livestock transfers in northern Kenya play?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 415-437, December.
    18. Roy Darwin, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1049-1052, September.
    19. C. Barrett & K. Smith & P. Box, 2001. "Not Necessarily In The Same Boat: Heterogeneous Risk Assessment Among East African Pastoralists," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1-30.
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    Cited by:
    1. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.

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