IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolec/v68y2009i7p1915-1924.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations

Author

Listed:
  • Kabubo-Mariara, Jane

Abstract

This paper examines the economic impact of climate change on livestock production in Kenya. We estimate a Ricardian model of net livestock incomes and further estimate the marginal impacts of climate change. We also simulate the impact of different climate scenarios on livestock incomes. The Ricardian results show that livestock production in Kenya is highly sensitive to climate change and that there is a non-linear relationship between climate change and livestock productivity. The estimated marginal impacts suggest modest gains from rising temperatures and losses from increased precipitation. The predictions from atmospheric ocean general circulation models suggest that livestock farmers in Kenya are likely to incur heavy losses from global warming. The highest and lowest losses are predicted from the Hadley Centre Coupled model (HADCM) and Parallel Climate Model (PCM) respectively, based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The paper concludes that in the long term, climate change is likely to lead to increased poverty, vulnerability and loss of livelihoods. Several policy interventions are recommended to counter this impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2009. "Global warming and livestock husbandry in Kenya: Impacts and adaptations," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(7), pages 1915-1924, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2009:i:7:p:1915-1924
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921-8009(09)00108-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    2. Luseno, Winnie K. & McPeak, John G. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Little, Peter D. & Gebru, Getachew, 2003. "Assessing the Value of Climate Forecast Information for Pastoralists: Evidence from Southern Ethiopia and Northern Kenya," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 1477-1494, September.
    3. John K. Horowitz & John Quiggin, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1044-1045, September.
    4. Mccarthy, Nancy & Di Gregorio, Monica, 2007. "Climate variability and flexibility in resource access: the case of pastoral mobility in Northern Kenya," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 403-421, June.
    5. Dercon, Stefan, 1998. "Wealth, risk and activity choice: cattle in Western Tanzania," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 1-42, February.
    6. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2003. "The linkages between property rights, migration, and productivity: the case of Kajiado District, Kenya," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 621-636, October.
    7. John G. McPeak, 2003. "Analyzing and Addressing Localized Degradation in the Commons," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(4), pages 515-536.
    8. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William D & Shaw, Daigee, 1994. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 753-771, September.
    9. Katsushi Imai, 2003. "Is Livestock Important for Risk Behaviour and Activity Choice of Rural Households? Evidence from Kenya," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 12(2), pages 271-295, June.
    10. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane & Karanja, Fredrick K, 2007. "The economic impact of climate change on Kenyan crop agriculture : a ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4334, The World Bank.
    11. Mendelsohn, Robert & Nordhaus, William, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1312-1315, December.
    12. Peter D. Little & Kevin Smith & Barbara A. Cellarius & D. Layne Coppock & Christopher Barrett, 2001. "Avoiding Disaster: Diversification and Risk Management among East African Herders," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 401-433, June.
    13. Kabubo-Mariara, Jane, 2005. "Herders response to acute land pressure under changing property rights: some insights from Kajiado District, Kenya," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 67-85, February.
    14. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-1311, December.
    15. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2008. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on African cropland," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 1-23, March.
    16. McPeak, John, 2006. "Confronting the risk of asset loss: What role do livestock transfers in northern Kenya play?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 415-437, December.
    17. C. Barrett & K. Smith & P. Box, 2001. "Not Necessarily In The Same Boat: Heterogeneous Risk Assessment Among East African Pastoralists," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(5), pages 1-30.
    18. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    19. Roy Darwin, 1999. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(4), pages 1049-1052, September.
    20. Seo, Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Latin American farms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4163, The World Bank.
    21. Fafchamps, Marcel, 1998. "The Tragedy of the Commons, Livestock Cycles and Sustainability," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 7(3), pages 384-423, October.
    22. Seo, S. Niggol & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep, 2008. "Differential adaptation strategies by agro-ecological zones in African livestock management," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4601, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
    2. Emediegwu, Lotanna E. & Ubabukoh, Chisom L., 2023. "Re-examining the impact of annual weather fluctuations on global livestock production," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).
    3. Okello, Afrika & Nzuma, Jonathan & Otieno, David Jakinda & Kidoido, Michael & Tanga, Chrysantus, 2021. "Farmers’ Perceptions of Commercial Insect-Based Feed for Sustainable Livestock Production in Kenya," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315215, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. Jane Kabubo-Mariara & Richard Mulwa, 2019. "Adaptation to climate change and climate variability and its implications for household food security in Kenya," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1289-1304, December.
    5. Assem Abu Hatab & Maria Eduarda Rigo Cavinato & Carl Johan Lagerkvist, 2019. "Urbanization, livestock systems and food security in developing countries: A systematic review of the literature," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(2), pages 279-299, April.
    6. Mohmmed, Alnail & Li, Jianhua & Elaru, Joshua & Elbashier, Mohammed M.A. & Keesstra, Saskia & Artemi, Cerdà & Martin, Kabenge & Reuben, Makomere & Teffera, Zeben, 2018. "Assessing drought vulnerability and adaptation among farmers in Gadaref region, Eastern Sudan," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 402-413.
    7. Dittrich, Ruth & Wreford, Anita & Moran, Dominic, 2016. "A survey of decision-making approaches for climate change adaptation: Are robust methods the way forward?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 79-89.
    8. Junfei Bai & Zhigang Xu & Huanguang Qiu & Haiyan Liu, 2015. "Optimising seed portfolios to cope ex ante with risks from bad weather: evidence from a recent maize farmer survey in China," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(2), pages 242-257, April.
    9. Moretti, Michele & Vanschoenwinkel, Janka & Van Passel, Steven, 2021. "Accounting for externalities in cross-sectional economic models of climate change impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    11. Gholizadeh, Heydar & Zoghipour, Mohammad Hossein & Torshizi, Mohammad & Nazari, Mohammad Reza & Moradkhani, Narges, 2021. "Gone with the wind: Impact of soil-dust storms on farm income," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    12. Afshin Ghahramani & S. Mark Howden & Agustin del Prado & Dean T. Thomas & Andrew D. Moore & Boyu Ji & Serkan Ates, 2019. "Climate Change Impact, Adaptation, and Mitigation in Temperate Grazing Systems: A Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-30, December.
    13. Afrika Onguko Okello & Jonathan Makau Nzuma & David Jakinda Otieno & Michael Kidoido & Chrysantus Mbi Tanga, 2021. "Farmers’ Perceptions of Commercial Insect-Based Feed for Sustainable Livestock Production in Kenya," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-13, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jane Kabubo‐Mariara, 2008. "Climate change adaptation and livestock activity choices in Kenya: An economic analysis," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 131-141, May.
    2. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
    3. Garcia, Maria & Viladrich-Grau, Montserrat, 2009. "The economic relevance of climate variables in agriculture: The case of Spain," Economia Agraria y Recursos Naturales, Spanish Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 9(02), pages 1-32.
    4. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    5. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
    6. Michelle J. Reinsborough, 2003. "A Ricardian model of climate change in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 21-40, March.
    7. Ariel Ortiz‐Bobea, 2020. "The Role of Nonfarm Influences in Ricardian Estimates of Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(3), pages 934-959, May.
    8. Frederick Quaye & Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska, 2018. "Climate Change Impacts on Farmland Values in the Southeast United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, September.
    9. Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep & Mendelsohn, Robert, 2007. "Endogenous irrigation : the impact of climate change on farmers in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4278, The World Bank.
    10. Birthal, P.S. & Negi, Digvijay S. & Kumar, Shiv & Aggarwal, Shaily & Suresh, A. & Khan, Md. Tajuddin, 2014. "How Sensitive is Indian Agriculture to Climate Change?," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 69(4), pages 1-14.
    11. Senzele, Joseph & AMAYENE, Chimène, 2022. "Impact of climate change on household agricultural incomes in niger: spatial econometric analysis," MPRA Paper 118073, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jul 2023.
    12. William M. Fonta & Aymar Y. Bossa & Mouhamadou B. Sylla, 2017. "The Economic Impact of Climate Change on Plantation Agriculture in Nigeria: Implication for Enhanced Productivity," Working Papers 342, African Economic Research Consortium, Research Department.
    13. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
    14. Schlenker, Wolfram & Hanemann, W. Michael & Fisher, Anthony C., 2004. "Determinants of Agricultural Output: Degree Days, Yields and Implications for Climate Change," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19222, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    15. Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, 2021. "Climate, Agriculture and Food," Papers 2105.12044, arXiv.org.
    16. Lazzaroni, S. & Bedi, A.S., 2014. "Weather variability and food consumption," ISS Working Papers - General Series 51272, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    17. Mandleni, B. & Anim, F.D.K., 2011. "Climate change and adaptation of small-scale cattle and sheep farmers," 85th Annual Conference, April 18-20, 2011, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 108962, Agricultural Economics Society.
    18. Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis & Abate Kassa, Getachew & Gandorfer, Markus, 2017. "Impact of climate change on farms in smallholder farming systems: Yield impacts, economic implications and distributional effects," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 58-66.
    19. Fabrice Ochou & Philippe Quirion, 2022. "Impact du changement climatique sur l’agriculture : une quantification du biais de prix dans les approches économétriques," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 73(1), pages 43-67.
    20. Robert Mendelsohn & Larry Williams, 2004. "Comparing Forecasts of the Global Impacts of Climate Change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 9(4), pages 315-333, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2009:i:7:p:1915-1924. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.