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Robust Stability of Monetary Policy Rules under Adaptive Learning

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Abstract

Recent research has explored how minor changes in expectation formation can change the stability properties of a model (Duffy and Xiao 2007, Evans and Honkapoja 2009). This paper builds on this research by examining an economy subject to a variety of monetary policy rules under an endogenous learning algorithm proposed by Marcet and Nicolini (2003). The results indicate that operational versions of optimal discretionary rules are not "robustly stable" as in Evans and Honkapoja (2009). In addition commitment rules are not robust to minor changes in expectational structure and parameter values.

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File URL: http://webpages.ursinus.edu/egaus/Research/GausPolicyInstability.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ursinus College, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 13-01.

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Length: pages
Date of creation: 12 Jul 2012
Date of revision: 14 Dec 2012
Publication status: Published
Handle: RePEc:urs:urswps:13-01

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Postal: Ursinus College 601 East Main St. Collegeville, PA 19426
Web page: http://webpages.ursinus.edu/ecba/
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Keywords: Learning; Rational Expectations; Monetary Policy Rules;

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  1. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
  2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
  3. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  4. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "A simple recursive forecasting model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 158-166, May.
  5. Adam, Klaus & Billi, Roberto M., 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy under Commitment with a Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(7), pages 1877-1905, October.
  6. Guido Ascari & Tiziano Ropele, 2009. "Trend Inflation, Taylor Principle and Indeterminacy," Quaderni di Dipartimento 097, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
  7. Milani, Fabio, 2007. "Expectations, learning and macroeconomic persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2065-2082, October.
  8. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2002. "Monetary Policy, Expectations and Commitment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3434, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. John Duffy & Wei Xiao, 2007. "The Value of Interest Rate Stabilization Policies When Agents Are Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2041-2056, December.
  10. Jensen, Christian & McCallum, Bennett T., 2002. "The non-optimality of proposed monetary policy rules under timeless perspective commitment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 163-168, October.
  11. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Eric Gaus, 2013. "Time-Varying Parameters and Endogenous Learning Algorithms," Working Papers 13-02, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
  2. Eric Gaus & Srikanth Ramamurthy, 2012. "Learning and Loss Functions: Comparing Optimal and Operational Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 14-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics, revised 14 Dec 2013.

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