Decision making in uncertain and changing environments
AbstractWe consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertain and changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discounts future payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm that performs almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts or benchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agent is sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgetting distant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant past equally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1160.
Date of creation: Jun 2009
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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/
Adaptive learning; experts; distribution-free; e-optimality; Hannan regret;
Other versions of this item:
- Karl Schlag & Andriy Zapechelnyuk, 2009. "Decision Making in Uncertain and Changing Environments," Discussion Papers 19, Kyiv School of Economics.
- Karl H. Schlag & Andriy Zapechelnyuk, 2009. "Decision Making in Uncertain and Changing Environments," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000259, David K. Levine.
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search, Learning, and Information
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