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A Randomization Rule for Selecting Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Dean P. Foster

    (University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)

  • Rakesh V. Vohra

    (Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio)

Abstract

We propose a randomized strategy for selecting/combining forecasts that is better than the forecasts used to produce it in a sense made precise in this paper. Unlike traditional methods this approach requires that no assumptions be made about the distribution of the event being forecasted or the error distribution and stationarity of the constituent forecasts. The method is simple and easy to implement.

Suggested Citation

  • Dean P. Foster & Rakesh V. Vohra, 1993. "A Randomization Rule for Selecting Forecasts," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(4), pages 704-709, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:oropre:v:41:y:1993:i:4:p:704-709
    DOI: 10.1287/opre.41.4.704
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Viossat, Yannick & Zapechelnyuk, Andriy, 2013. "No-regret dynamics and fictitious play," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 825-842.
    2. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00713871 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Schlag, Karl H. & Zapechelnyuk, Andriy, 2017. "Dynamic benchmark targeting," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 145-169.
    4. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2013. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading To Correlated Equilibrium," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Simple Adaptive Strategies From Regret-Matching to Uncoupled Dynamics, chapter 2, pages 17-46, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Yoav Freund & Robert E Shapire, 1997. "Game Theory, On-line Prediction and Boosting," Levine's Working Paper Archive 593, David K. Levine.
    6. Karl Schlag & Andriy Zapechelnyuk, 2009. "Decision Making in Uncertain and Changing Environments," Discussion Papers 19, Kyiv School of Economics.
    7. Eric Friedman & Scott Shenker & Amy Greenwald, 1998. "Learning in Networks Contexts: Experimental Results from Simulations," Departmental Working Papers 199825, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    8. P. Auer & N. Cesa-Bianchi & Y. Freund & R. Schapire, 2010. "Gambling in a rigged casino: The adversarial multi-armed bandit problem," Levine's Working Paper Archive 462, David K. Levine.
    9. Greenwald, Amy & Friedman, Eric J. & Shenker, Scott, 2001. "Learning in Network Contexts: Experimental Results from Simulations," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 80-123, April.
    10. Freund, Yoav & Schapire, Robert E., 1999. "Adaptive Game Playing Using Multiplicative Weights," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 79-103, October.
    11. Michel Benaïm & Mathieu Faure, 2013. "Consistency of Vanishingly Smooth Fictitious Play," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 437-450, August.
    12. Dean P Foster & Peyton Young, 2006. "Regret Testing Leads to Nash Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 784828000000000676, David K. Levine.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    forecasting: combining forecasts;

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