Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Decision Making in Uncertain and Changing Environments

Contents:

Author Info

  • Karl Schlag

    (Pompeu Fabra University)

  • Andriy Zapechelnyuk

    ()
    (University of Bonn and Kyiv School of Economics)

Abstract

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertain and changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discounts future payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm that performs almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts or benchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agent is sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgetting distant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant past equally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://repec.kse.org.ua/pdf/KSE_dp19.pdf
File Function: First version, June 2009
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Kyiv School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 19.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kse:dpaper:19

Note: Under review in Review of Economic Studies
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 13 Yakira Str, 04119 Kyiv
Phone: (38-044)492-8012
Fax: (38-044)492-8011
Email:
Web page: http://www.kse.org.ua/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Adaptive learning; experts; distribution-free; epsilon-optimality; Hannan regret;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 104-130, October.
  2. George Mailath & Andrew Postlewaite & Larry Samuelson, 2003. "Contemporaneous Perfect Epsilon-Equilibria," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-021, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  3. Sergiu Hart & Andreu Mas-Colell, 2000. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1127-1150, September.
  4. Radner, Roy, 1980. "Collusive behavior in noncooperative epsilon-equilibria of oligopolies with long but finite lives," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-154, April.
  5. Lehrer, Ehud & Solan, Eilon, 2009. "Approachability with bounded memory," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 995-1004, July.
  6. Freund, Yoav & Schapire, Robert E., 1999. "Adaptive Game Playing Using Multiplicative Weights," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 79-103, October.
  7. Sergiu Hart, 2004. "Adaptive Heuristics," Discussion Paper Series dp372, The Center for the Study of Rationality, Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
  8. Foster, Dean P. & Young, H. Peyton, 2006. "Regret testing: learning to play Nash equilibrium without knowing you have an opponent," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(3), pages 341-367, September.
  9. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David K., 1995. "Consistency and cautious fictitious play," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1065-1089.
  10. Hart, Sergiu & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 2001. "A General Class of Adaptive Strategies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 26-54, May.
  11. Lehrer, Ehud, 2003. "A wide range no-regret theorem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 101-115, January.
  12. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh V., 1997. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 40-55, October.
  13. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
  14. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh, 1999. "Regret in the On-Line Decision Problem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 7-35, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kse:dpaper:19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Olena Nizalova).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.