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Decision Making in Uncertain and Changing Environments

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  • Karl H. Schlag
  • Andriy Zapechelnyuk

Abstract

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertain and changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discounts future payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm that performs almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts or benchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agent is sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgetting distant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant past equally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

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Paper provided by David K. Levine in its series Levine's Working Paper Archive with number 814577000000000259.

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Date of creation: 08 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:cla:levarc:814577000000000259

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  1. Ehud Lehrer & Dinah Rosenberg, 2003. "A Wide Range No-Regret Theorem," Game Theory and Information 0312004, EconWPA.
  2. Lehrer, Ehud & Solan, Eilon, 2009. "Approachability with bounded memory," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 995-1004, July.
  3. Radner, Roy, 1980. "Collusive behavior in noncooperative epsilon-equilibria of oligopolies with long but finite lives," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 136-154, April.
  4. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh, 1999. "Regret in the On-Line Decision Problem," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 7-35, October.
  5. S. Hart & A. Mas-Collel, 2010. "A Simple Adaptive Procedure Leading to Correlated Equilibrium," Levine's Working Paper Archive 572, David K. Levine.
  6. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1999. "Conditional Universal Consistency," Scholarly Articles 3204826, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Mailath, George J. & Postlewaite, Andrew & Samuelson, Larry, 2005. "Contemporaneous perfect epsilon-equilibria," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 126-140, October.
  8. Freund, Yoav & Schapire, Robert E., 1999. "Adaptive Game Playing Using Multiplicative Weights," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 79-103, October.
  9. Fudenberg, Drew & Levine, David, 1995. "Consistency and Cautious Fictitious Play," Scholarly Articles 3198694, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Hart, Sergiu & Mas-Colell, Andreu, 2001. "A General Class of Adaptive Strategies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 26-54, May.
  11. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
  12. Sergiu Hart, 2005. "Adaptive Heuristics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1401-1430, 09.
  13. Foster, Dean P. & Vohra, Rakesh V., 1997. "Calibrated Learning and Correlated Equilibrium," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 40-55, October.
  14. Foster, Dean P. & Young, H. Peyton, 2006. "Regret testing: learning to play Nash equilibrium without knowing you have an opponent," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 1(3), pages 341-367, September.
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