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Assessing ECB?s Credibility During the First Years of the Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation

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Gianni Amisano
Marco Tronzano

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Abstract

This paper extends Svensson (1994) ?simplest test?of in?ation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework. We apply this approach to the initial years of the Eurosystem and obtain various estimates of ECB?s monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence is robust to alternative prior assumptions, and suggests that the strategy followed by the ECB was successful in building a satisfactory degree of reputation. However, we find some significant credibility reversals concerning both anti-inflationary and anti-deflationary credibility. These reversals, in turn, are closely related to the evolution of the cyclical macroeconomic conditions in the Euro area.

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Paper provided by University of Brescia, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number ubs0512.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:ubs0512

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  2. Svensson, Lars, 2000. "The first Year of the Eurosystem: Inflation Targeting or Not?," Seminar Papers 681, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Mark A. Wynne, 2003. "Inflation measurement and the ECB's pursuit of price stability: a first assessment," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 395-434, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Diego Rodriguez-Palenzuela, 2003. "Definition of price stability, range and point inflation targets - the anchoring of long-term inflation expectations," Working Paper Series 273, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Tronzano, Marco & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2000. "Assessing the Credibility of a Target Zone: Evidence from EMS Countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(2), pages 107-20, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Monetary Policy and Real Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 9486, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," CEPR Discussion Papers 493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Papers 667, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  12. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 1991. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," IMF Working Papers 91/97, International Monetary Fund.
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  14. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 1999. "Stability, Asymmetry, and Discontinuity: The Launch of European Monetary Union," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 30(1999-2), pages 295-372. [Downloadable!]
  15. Tronzano , Marco, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Credibility: A Note on the Recent Empirical Literature," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 58(4), pages 489-506.
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  17. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2007. "Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 0719, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
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