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Inflation Targeting to Achieve Inflation Convergence in the Transition Towards EMU

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  • De Grauwe, Paul
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    Abstract

    In this paper we analyse the use of inflation targeting as a device to facilitate inflation convergence of countries outside EMU to the EMU-inflation rate, and compare it with exchange rate pegging. We find that inflation targeting suffers from a similar credibility problem as a policy of exchange rate pegging. We also find, however, that inflation targeting is inherently more sustainable than exchange rate pegging. This relates to the fact that a lack of credibility of the exchange rate peg spills over into an increasing appreciation of the currency, inviting speculative attacks and a collapse of the exchange rate peg. Inflation targeting can avoid such situations. Despite the advantages inflation targeting remains plagued by serious credibility issues. In order to reduce these problems and thereby facilitate the convergence process (by high-inflation countries), we propose to combine inflation targeting with the Rogoff-proposal to appoint a conservative central banker.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1457.

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    Date of creation: Sep 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1457

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    Related research

    Keywords: EMU; Inflation; Monetary Integration;

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    Cited by:
    1. Lossani, M. & Natale, P. & Tirelli, P., 2003. "A nominal income growth target for a conservative ECB? When the policy mix matters," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 685-699, November.
    2. Alexis Penot, 1998. "La politique monétaire française à travers la règle de Taylor," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(5), pages 135-154.
    3. Lossani, Marco & Natale, Piergiovanna & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2000. "Fiscal Policy and Inflation Targets: Does Credibility Matters?," MPRA Paper 18693, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Devine, Máiréad & McCoy, Daniel, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A Review of the Issues," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Orlowski, Lucjan T., 2001. "From inflation targeting to the euro-peg: A model of monetary convergence for transition economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 233-251, September.
    6. Gianni Amisano & Marco Tronzano, 2005. "Assessing ECB?s Credibility During the First Years of the Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation," Working Papers ubs0512, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    7. Marco Lossani & Piergiovanna Natale & Patrizio Tirelli, 1997. "Do we really need to tame a conservative ECB? When the policy mix matters," Working Papers 18, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Nov 1998.
    8. M. Lossani & P. Natale, & P. Tirelli, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and Imperfectly Credible Inflation Targets: Should We Appoint Expenditure-Conservative Central Bankers?," Working Papers 9707, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    9. Iannis A. Mourmouras & Michael G. Arghyrou, 1999. "Monetary Policy at the European Periphery. Greek Experience and Lessons for Transition Economies," CERT Discussion Papers 9910, Centre for Economic Reform and Transformation, Heriot Watt University.

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