Volumes of Evidence - Examining Technical Change Last Century Through a New Lens
AbstractAlthough technical change is central in much of modern economics, traditional measures of it are, for a number of reasons, flawed. We discuss in this paper new indicators based on data drawn from the MARC records of the Library of Congress on the number of new technology titles in various fields published in the United States over the course of the last century. These indicators, we argue, overcome many of the shortcomings associated with patents, research and development expenditures, innovation counts, and productivity figures. We find, among other things, the following: the pattern and nature of technical change described by our indicators is, on the whole, consistent with that of other measures; they represent innovation not diffusion; a strong causal relationship between our indicators and changes in TFP and output per capita; innovations in some sub-groups have had a greater impact on output and productivity than others and, moreover, the key players have changed over time. Our indicators can be used to shed light on number of important issues including the empirical relationship between technology shocks and employment, the role of technology in cross-country productivity differences, and the part played by technological change in growing skills premia in the U.S. during the last few decades.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Toronto, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number tecipa-392.
Length: 56 pages
Date of creation: 26 Jan 2010
Date of revision:
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Business Cycles; Technical change; productivity; measurement;
Other versions of this item:
- Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2009. "Volumes of Evidence: Examining Technical Change Last Century Through a New Lens," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics tecipa-350, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
- O3 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights
- O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-02-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-EFF-2010-02-05 (Efficiency & Productivity)
- NEP-HIS-2010-02-05 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
- NEP-INO-2010-02-05 (Innovation)
- NEP-MAC-2010-02-05 (Macroeconomics)
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- Michelle Alexopoulos, 2011.
"Read All about It!! What Happens Following a Technology Shock?,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1144-79, June.
- Michelle Alexopoulos, 2010. "Read All About it!! What happens following a technology shock?," Working Papers, University of Toronto, Department of Economics tecipa-391, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Michelle Alexopoulos, 2004. "Read All About it: What happens following a technology shock," 2004 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Michelle Alexopoulos & Jon Cohen, 2012. "The Effects of Computer Technologies on the Canadian Economy: Evidence from New Direct Measures," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 23, pages 17-32, Spring.
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