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A retrospective look at the U.S. productivity growth resurgence

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Author Info
Dale W. Jorgenson
Mun S. Ho
Kevin J. Stiroh

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Abstract

It is now widely recognized that information technology (IT) was critical to the dramatic acceleration of U.S. labor productivity growth in the mid-1990s. This paper traces the evolution of productivity estimates to document how and when this perception emerged. Early studies concluded that IT was relatively unimportant. It was only after the massive IT investment boom of the late 1990s that this investment and underlying productivity increases in the IT-producing sectors were identified as important sources of growth. Although IT has diminished in significance since the dot-com crash of 2000, we project that private sector productivity growth will average around 2.5 percent per year for the next decade, a pace that is only moderately below the average for the 1995-2005 period.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 277.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:277

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Related research
Keywords: Information technology ; Labor productivity;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald & Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "The case of the missing productivity growth: or, does information technology explain why productivity accelerated in the United States but not the United Kingdom?," Working Paper Series WP-03-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2004-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Karl Whelan, 2000. "Computers, obsolescence, and productivity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-06, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Timothy F. Bresnahan & Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2002. "Information Technology, Workplace Organization, And The Demand For Skilled Labor: Firm-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(1), pages 339-376, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: US Economic Growth in the Information Age," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 261, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Sandra E. Black & Lisa M. Lynch, 2001. "How To Compete: The Impact Of Workplace Practices And Information Technology On Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 434-445, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Aksoy, Yunus & Orphanides, Athanasios & Small, David & Wieland, Volker & Wilcox, David, 2006. "A quantitative exploration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1877-1893, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
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  9. L. Slifman & C. Corrado, 1996. "Decomposition of productivity and unit costs," Staff Studies 1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Martin Neil Baily & Robert Z. Lawrence, 2001. "Do We Have a New E-conomy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 308-312, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Martin Neil Baily & Robert J. Gordon, 1988. "The Productivity Slowdown, Measurement Issues, and the Explosion of Computer Power," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1988-2), pages 347-432. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2006-1), pages 69-154. [Downloadable!]
  14. Joseph H. Haimowitz, 1998. "Has the surge in computer spending fundamentally changed the economy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 27-42. [Downloadable!]
  15. Brynjolfsson, Erik & Hitt, Lorin M., 2004. "Computing Productivity: Firm-Level Evidence," Working papers 4210-01, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2006. "Information and communications technology as a general-purpose technology: evidence from U.S industry data," Working Paper Series 2006-29, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Carl E. Walsh, 1999. "Projecting budget surpluses," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep 10. [Downloadable!]
  18. Ana Aizcorbe & Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2006. "Shifting trends in semiconductor prices and the pace of technological progress," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U. S. Economy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1911, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  21. Martin N. Baily & Robert Lawrence, 2001. "Do We Have A New E-Conomy?," NBER Working Papers 8243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ruttan, Vernon W., 2008. "General Purpose Technology, Revolutionary Technology, and Technological Maturity," Staff Papers 6206, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sumner La Croix, 2007. "Decomposing and Analyzing Korea’s Declining GDP Growth: Some Cautions and Suggestions," Working Papers 200721, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Simon Condliffe & William Latham & Christian Le Bas & Frédéric Miribel, 2008. "Agglomeration Economies within IT-Producing and IT-Consuming Industries in U.S. Regions," Working Papers 08-24, University of Delaware, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Peter Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2008. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 473-492, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Steven Pennings & Rod Tyers, 2007. "Increasing Returns, Financial Capital Mobility And Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," CAMA Working Papers 2007-16, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "What do we know and not know about potential output?," Working Paper Series 2009-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Nick Bloom & Raffaella Sadun & John Van Reenen, 2009. "The Organization of Firms Across Countries," CEP Discussion Papers dp0937, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Massimo Del Gatto & Adriana Di Liberto & C. Petraglia, 2008. "Measuring Productivity," Working Paper CRENoS 200818, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia. [Downloadable!]
  9. Edquist, Harald, 2009. "How Much does Sweden Invest in Intangible Assets?," Working Paper Series 785, Research Institute of Industrial Economics. [Downloadable!]
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