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How Would an Appreciation of the Yuan Affect the People's Republic of China's Surplus in Processing Trade?

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  • Thorbecke, Willem

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

Enormous trade surpluses are problematic for the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the rest of the world. They primarily stem from processing trade. This paper investigates how exchange rate changes would affect the PRC's imports for processing and processed exports. The results indicate that an appreciation throughout East Asian supply chain countries would reduce the PRC's surplus in processing trade, while an appreciation of the yuan alone might not. Even for an appreciation throughout East Asia, however, the sum of the exchange rate elasticities is not large. Thus, to rebalance the PRC's trade, exchange rate appreciations must be accompanied by other changes such as factor market liberalization and greater enforcement of environmental regulations.

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File URL: http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2010/06/18/3913.yuan.affect..prc.surplus.trade/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank Institute in its series ADBI Working Papers with number 219.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 18 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0219

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Keywords: global imbalances; exchange rate elasticities; yuan affect prc surplus; surplus processing trade;

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  1. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Sarah Y. Tong & Yi Zheng, 2008. "China's Trade Acceleration and the Deepening of an East Asian Regional Production Network," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 16(1), pages 66-81.
  3. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  4. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
  5. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  6. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
  7. Shaghil Ahmed, 2009. "Are Chinese exports sensitive to changes in the exchange rate?," International Finance Discussion Papers 987, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
  9. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  10. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Xing, Yuqing, 2012. "Processing trade, exchange rates and China's bilateral trade balances," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 540-547.

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