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Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade

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  • Jaime Marquez
  • John Schindler

Abstract

Though China's share of world trade exceeds that of Japan, little is known about the response of China's trade to changes in exchange rates. The few estimates available have two limitations. First, the data for trade prices are based on proxies for prices from other countries. Secondly, the estimation sample includes the period of China's transformation from a centrally‐planned economy to a more market‐oriented one. We address these limitations with an empirical model explaining the shares of China's exports and imports in world trade in terms of the real effective value of the renminbi. The specifications control for foreign direct investment and for the role of imports of parts to assemble exports. Parameter estimation uses disaggregated monthly trade data and excludes China's decentralization period. We find that a 10 percent real appreciation of the renminbi lowers the share of aggregate Chinese exports by nearly one percentage point. However, the estimated response of imports is negligible and lacks precision.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaime Marquez & John Schindler, 2007. "Exchange‐rate Effects on China's Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 837-853, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:15:y:2007:i:5:p:837-853
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2007.00700.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mrs. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows: Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 1999/001, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2005. "China’s Integration in East Asia: Production Sharing, FDI & High-Tech Trade," Working Papers 2005-09, CEPII research center.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel & C. Fred Bergsten & Michael L. Mussa, 1994. "Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 293-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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