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Bulls, bears and excess volatility: can currency intervention help?

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  • Luisa Corrado

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge and University of Rome, Tor Vergata, Italy)

  • Marcus Miller

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick and CEPR, UK)

  • Lei Zhang

    (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, UK)

Abstract

Asset mis-pricing may reflect investor psychology; and excess volatility can arise from switches of sentiment. For a floating exchange rate where fundamentals follow a random walk, we show that excess volatility can be generated by the repeated entry and exit of currency 'bulls' and 'bears' with switches driven by 'draw-down' trading rules. We argue that non-sterilized intervention-in support of 'monitoring band'-can reduce excess volatility by coordinating beliefs in line with policy. Strategic complementarity in the foreign exchange market suggests that sterilized intervention may also play a coordinating role. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 261-272

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Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:2:p:261-272

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  14. Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 146, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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Cited by:
  1. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & J{\o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2013. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Papers 1311.4274, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2014.
  2. Liu, Yi-Fang & Zhang, Wei & Xu, Chao & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Xu, Hai-Chuan, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 204-215.
  3. Paul De Grauwe & Pablo Rovira Kaltwasser, 2007. "Modeling Optimism and Pessimism in the Foreign Exchange Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 1962, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00983051, HAL.
  5. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2221, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Yi-Fang Liu & Wei Zhang & Chao Xu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Hai-Chuan Xu, 2014. "Impact of information cost and switching of trading strategies in an artificial stock market," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14031, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.

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