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A Welfare Criterion for Models with Distorted Beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Xiong

    (Department of Economics and Bendheim Cen)

  • Alp Simsek

    (MIT)

  • Markus Brunnermeier

    (Princeton University)

Abstract

This paper proposes a welfare criterion for economies in which agents have heterogeneously distorted beliefs. Instead of taking a stand on whose belief is correct, our criterion asserts an allocation to be belief-neutral efficient (inefficient) if it is efficient (inefficient) under any convex combination of agents' beliefs. While this criterion gives an incomplete ranking of social allocations, it can identify positive- and negative-sum speculation driven by conflicting beliefs in a broad range of economic environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Xiong & Alp Simsek & Markus Brunnermeier, 2014. "A Welfare Criterion for Models with Distorted Beliefs," 2014 Meeting Papers 1418, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:1418
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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