Does the weather affect stock market volatility?
AbstractThis paper investigates the empirical association between stock market volatility and investor mood-proxies related to the weather (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation) and the environment (nighttime length). Overall, our results suggest that cloudiness and length of nighttime are inversely related to historical, implied and realized measures of volatility. The strength of association seems to vary with the location of an exchange on Earth with respect to the equator. Weather deviations from seasonal norms and dummies representing extreme weather conditions do not offer additional explanatory power in our datasets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34128.
Date of creation: 10 Sep 2009
Date of revision:
Stock market anomalies; Volatility; Sunshine effect; SAD effect; Behavioral Finance;
Other versions of this item:
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other
- G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
- Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2001.
"Social Interaction and Stock-Market Participation,"
NBER Working Papers
8358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987.
"A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix,"
Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
- Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Meir Statman & Steven Thorley & Keith Vorkink, 2006. "Investor Overconfidence and Trading Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1531-1565.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2005.
"Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?,"
European Financial Management,
European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(5), pages 559-578.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," NBER Working Papers 9465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2004. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm28, Yale School of Management.
- William Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2002. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm296, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
- Mehra, Rajnish & Sah, Raaj, 2002.
"Mood fluctuations, projection bias, and volatility of equity prices,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 869-887, May.
- Rajnish Mehra & Raaj Sah, 1999. "Can Small Fluctuations in Investors' Subjective Preferences Induce Large Volatility in Equity Prices?," Working Papers 9917, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
- Stephen P. Keef & Melvin L. Roush, 2007. "A meta-analysis of the international evidence of cloud cover on stock returns," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 324-338, August.
- Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
- Shalen, Catherine T, 1993. "Volume, Volatility, and the Dispersion of Beliefs," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 405-34.
- Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2008. "Weather and intraday patterns in stock returns and trading activity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1754-1766, September.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeremy C. Stein, 2002.
"Market Liquidity as a Sentiment Indicator,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1977, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003.
"Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
- Kamstra, M.J. & Kramer, L.A. & Levi, M.D., 1998.
"Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight-Savings Anomaly,"
dp98-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
- Lisa A. Kramer & Mark J. Kamstra & Maurice D. Levi, 2000. "Losing Sleep at the Market: The Daylight Saving Anomaly," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1005-1011, September.
- Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
- Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 343-364, June.
- Garrett, Ian & Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A., 2005.
"Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 291-316, March.
- Ian Garrett & Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer, 2004. "Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk," Working Paper 2004-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Brian M. Lucey & Michael Dowling, 2005. "The Role of Feelings in Investor Decision-Making," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 211-237, 04.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, .
"Learning To Be Overconfident,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
05-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Simon Gervais & Terrance Odean, . "Learning To Be Overconfident," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Mills,Terence C. & Markellos,Raphael N., 2008. "The Econometric Modelling of Financial Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521710091, December.
- David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004.
"Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather,"
- Levy, Ori & Galili, Itai, 2008. "Stock purchase and the weather: Individual differences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(3-4), pages 755-767, September.
- Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
- Shan, Liwei & Gong, Stephen X., 2012. "Investor sentiment and stock returns: Wenchuan Earthquake," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 36-47.
- Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christos Floros, 2011. "On the relationship between weather and stock market returns," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 5-13, March.
- Hasan, Dr. Syed Akif & Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz, 2011. "Which Matters the Most for the Trading Index? (Law and Order or Weather Conditions)," MPRA Paper 34736, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.