Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?
Abstract"There is considerable empirical evidence that emotion influences decision-making. In this paper, we use a database of individual investor accounts to examine the weather effects on traders. Our analysis of the trading activity in five major US cities over a six-year period finds virtually no difference in individuals' propensity to buy or sell equities on cloudy days as opposed to sunny days. If the association between cloud cover and stock returns documented for New York and other world cities is indeed caused by investor mood swings, our findings suggest that researchers should focus on the attitudes of market-makers, news providers or other agents physically located in the city hosting the exchange. NYSE spreads widen on cloudy days. When we control for this, the weather effect becomes smaller and insignificant. We interpret this as evidence that the behaviour of market-makers, rather than individual investors, may be responsible for the relation between returns and weather". Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd, 2005.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by European Financial Management Association in its journal European Financial Management.
Volume (Year): 11 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1354-7798
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Other versions of this item:
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2004. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm28, Yale School of Management.
- William Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2002. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm296, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2009.
- William N. Goetzmann & Ning Zhu, 2003. "Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?," NBER Working Papers 9465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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