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Prospect theory and disposition patterns: evidence from Taiwan investors

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  • Min-Hua Kuo
  • Shaw K. Chen
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    Abstract

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that various disposition patterns in terms of the price changes are plausible under the Prospect Theory (PT), which argues that investors have a greater tendency to sell assets that have risen in value since the purchase than those that have fallen. Numerous empirical evidences have shown that investors demonstrate the disposition effect (DE). This study highlights that, when the disposition measure is defined by the stock price changes, the PT predicts the DE indeed. It also indicates other seemingly contradicting disposition patterns: the reversed disposition effect and the pattern of the symmetry over gains and losses. Design/methodology/approach – To show that the disposition effect is only one of the disposition patterns under the preference of PT, as part of this study the authors apply the mental account theory and propose two decision criteria for the gain and loss accounts, respectively, (i.e. maximum loss tolerated and minimum gain required). An empirical analysis was performed from a large-scale market survey in Taiwan to examine individual investors' disposition patterns. Findings – The findings show that more than 50 percent of individual investors demonstrate their disposition patterns other than the disposition effect. Many investors show the reversed disposition effect or the pattern of symmetry (holding about the same magnitude of gains or losses before realization). Originality/value – This study answers the questions which, to the authors' knowledge, have not been incorporated in the studies of the PT or the DE: first, when do investors sell losers which they are inclined to hold on to? Second, for how long do they hold winners which they are eager to sell? The authors' arguments allow various disposition patterns to exist simultaneously, without changing the value function in the PT of convexity over losses and concavity over gains and without requiring strict assumptions on the expected stock returns. JEL classification: G11, D80

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Emerald Group Publishing in its journal Studies in Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 43-51

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    Handle: RePEc:eme:sefpps:v:29:y:2012:i:1:p:43-51

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    Related research

    Keywords: Disposition effect; Investors; Loss; Maximum loss tolerance; Mental account; Minimum value threshold; Profit; Prospect theory; Stock prices; Taiwan;

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    1. Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
    2. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    3. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
    4. Shu, Pei-Gi & Yeh, Yin-Hua & Chiu, Shean-Bii & Chen, Hsuan-Chi, 2005. "Are Taiwanese individual investors reluctant to realize their losses?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-223, March.
    5. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2000. "Distance, Language, and Culture Bias: The Role of Investor Sophistication," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm142, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
    6. Kyle, Albert S. & Ou-Yang, Hui & Xiong, Wei, 2006. "Prospect theory and liquidation decisions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 273-288, July.
    7. Schlarbaum, Gary G & Lewellen, Wilbur G & Lease, Ronald C, 1978. "Realized Returns on Common Stock Investments: The Experience of Individual Investors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(2), pages 299-325, April.
    8. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. " The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-90, July.
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