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Robust global mood influences in equity pricing

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Author Info

  • Dowling, Michael
  • Lucey, Brian M.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between seven mood-proxy variables and a global equity dataset using a variety of group tests. The mood-proxy variables are constructed from weather data (precipitation, temperature, wind, geomagnetic storms) and biorhythm data (seasonal affective disorder, daylight savings time changes, lunar phases). This study contributes a greater understanding of the relationship between mood and equity pricing through testing the strength of the relationship between groups of mood-proxy variables and both returns and variance. Using a large and globally diverse equity dataset, robust econometric testing approaches, and testing deseasonalised and regular weather variables, we conclude that seasonal affective disorder and low temperatures show the greatest relationship with equity pricing.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Multinational Financial Management.

Volume (Year): 18 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 145-164

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Handle: RePEc:eee:mulfin:v:18:y:2008:i:2:p:145-164

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/mulfin

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References

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  1. Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi, 2002. "Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle," Working Paper 2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, . "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 20-99, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Jacobsen, B. & Marquering, W.A., 2004. "Is it the weather?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-100-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  4. David Hirshleifer & TYLER G. SHUMWAY, 2004. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Finance 0412004, EconWPA.
  5. J. Michael Pinegar, 2002. "Losing Sleep at the Market: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1251-1256, September.
  6. Loughran, Tim & Schultz, Paul, 2004. "Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 343-364, June.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  8. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  9. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
  10. Anna Krivelyova & Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Playing the field: Geomagnetic storms and international stock markets," Working Paper 2003-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  12. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
  13. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benjamin R. Auer & Horst Rottmann, 2013. "Is there a Friday the 13th Effect in Emerging Asian Stock Markets?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4409, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Energy price transmissions during extreme movements," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-38, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2009. "Is it the weather? Comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 578-582, March.
  4. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2010. "Does the weather affect stock market volatility?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 214-223, December.
  5. repec:ipg:wpaper:28 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Silva, Pedro & Almeida, Liliana, 2011. "Weather and stock markets: empirical evidence from Portugal," MPRA Paper 54119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Kang, Sang Hoon & Jiang, Zhuhua & Lee, Yeonjeong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 91-99.
  8. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
  9. Marc Joëts, 2013. "Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics," Working Papers 2013-031, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  10. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan, PhD, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 184-197, November.
  11. Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  13. Khaled, Mohammed S. & Keef, Stephen P., 2013. "Seasonal affective disorder: onset and recovery," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 136-139.
  14. Brian Lucey, 2010. "Lunar seasonality in precious metal returns?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 835-838.
  15. Marc Joëts, 2012. "Mood-misattribution effect on energy markets: a biorhythm approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2012-24, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  16. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan & Bahattin Hamarat, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(16), pages 161-175, April.
  17. repec:ipg:wpaper:31 is not listed on IDEAS

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