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Winter blues and time variation in the price of risk

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  • Ian Garrett
  • Mark Kamstra
  • Lisa Kramer

Abstract

Previous research has documented robust links between seasonal variation in length of day, seasonal depression (known as seasonal affective disorder, or SAD), risk aversion, and stock market returns. The influence of SAD on market returns, known as the SAD effect, is large. The authors study the SAD effect in the context of an equilibrium asset pricing model to determine whether the seasonality can be explained using a conditional version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) that allows the price of risk to vary over time. Using daily and monthly data for the United States, Sweden, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia, the authors find that a conditional CAPM that allows the price of risk to vary in relation to seasonal variation in the length of day fully captures the SAD effect. This result is consistent with the notion that the SAD effect arises because of the heightened risk aversion that comes with seasonal depression.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2004-8.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2004-8

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  1. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," NBER Working Papers 4843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  3. Tokunaga, Howard, 1993. "The use and abuse of consumer credit: Application of psychological theory and research," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 285-316, June.
  4. Mark Kamstra & Lisa Kramer & Maurice Levi, 2002. "Winter blues: a SAD stock market cycle," Working Paper 2002-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Keim, Donald B., 1983. "Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality : Further empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 13-32, June.
  6. Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "Mean reversion in Southeast Asian stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 355-384, October.
  7. David Hirshleifer & Tyler Shumway, 2003. "Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1009-1032, 06.
  8. Ritter, Jay R, 1988. " The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 701-17, July.
  9. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  10. Harvey, Campbell R., 1989. "Time-varying conditional covariances in tests of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 289-317.
  11. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  12. Saunders, Edward M, Jr, 1993. "Stock Prices and Wall Street Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1337-45, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Kang, Sang Hoon & Jiang, Zhuhua & Lee, Yeonjeong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 91-99.
  2. Jacobsen, B. & Marquering, W.A., 2004. "Is it the weather?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-100-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
  3. Symeonidis, Lazaros & Daskalakis, George & Markellos, Raphael N., 2010. "Does the weather affect stock market volatility?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 214-223, December.
  4. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D. & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "Seasonal asset allocation: Evidence from mutual fund flows," CFR Working Papers 13-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  5. Dirk Brounen & Yair Ben-Hamo, 2009. "Calendar Anomalies: The Case of International Property Shares," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 115-136, February.
  6. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
  7. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed S., 2011. "A review of the seasonal affective disorder hypothesis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 959-967.
  8. Ronald Doeswijk, 2008. "The Optimism Cycle: Sell in May," De Economist, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 175-200, June.
  9. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2009. "Is it the weather? Response," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 583-587, March.
  10. Vidal-GarcĂ­a, Javier & Vidal, Marta, 2014. "Seasonality and idiosyncratic risk in mutual fund performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 613-624.
  11. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan, PhD, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(17), pages 184-197, November.
  12. Bohl, Martin T. & Goodfellow, Christiane & Bialkowski, Jedrzej, 2010. "Individual investors surpass their reputation: Trading behaviour on the Polish futures market," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 480-492, December.
  13. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Center of Excellence SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  14. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
  15. Svetlana Vlady & Ekrem Tufan & Bahattin Hamarat, 2011. "Causality Of Weather Conditions In Australian Stock Equity Returns," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(16), pages 161-175, April.
  16. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2009. "Is it the weather? Comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 578-582, March.

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