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Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices

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  • Neil Shephard
  • Arnaud Doucet

Abstract

Likelihood based estimation of the parameters of state space models can be carried out via a particle filter. In this paper we show how to make valid inference on such parameters when the model is incorrect. In particular we develop a simulation strategy for computing sandwich covariance matrices which can be used for asymptotic likelihood based inference. These methods are illustrated on some simulated data.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Shephard & Arnaud Doucet, 2012. "Robust inference on parameters via particle filters and sandwich covariance matrices," Economics Series Working Papers 606, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:606
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. George Poyiadjis & Arnaud Doucet & Sumeetpal S. Singh, 2011. "Particle approximations of the score and observed information matrix in state space models with application to parameter estimation," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 65-80.
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    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
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    6. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, Decembrie.
    7. Han Hong & Ahmed Khwaja & A. Ronald Gallant, 2010. "Dynamic Entry with Cross Product Spillovers: An Application to the Generic Drug Industry," Working Papers 10-59, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    8. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    9. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    10. Jason R. Blevins, 2016. "Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Estimating Dynamic Microeconomic Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(5), pages 773-804, August.
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    12. Flury, Thomas & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Based Only On Simulated Likelihood: Particle Filter Analysis Of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(05), pages 933-956, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Yong & Liu, Xiao-Bin & Yu, Jun, 2015. "A Bayesian chi-squared test for hypothesis testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 54-69.
    2. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Specification tests based on MCMC output," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 207(1), pages 237-260.
    3. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2020. "Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 450-493.
    4. P. G. Bissiri & C. C. Holmes & S. G. Walker, 2016. "A general framework for updating belief distributions," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 78(5), pages 1103-1130, November.
    5. Andreas Hetland, 2018. "The Stochastic Stationary Root Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-33, August.
    6. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quasi-likelihood; Particle filter; Sandwich matrix; Sequential Monte Carlo;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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