IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/uy8dn.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Economic convergence in ageing Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Kashnitsky, Ilya

    (Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

  • de Beer, Joop
  • van Wissen, Leo

Abstract

This paper investigates youth migration in Russia at the sub-regional level of administrative division. The aim of the research is to assess the volume of internal youth migration in cohort perspective. The task is only doable with the use of census data, which not only makes it possible to conduct research at the sub-regional level, but also provides much more accurate information on youth migration than the current migration record. I utilize cohort-component analysis to study sub-regional population dynamics. As mortality is quite insignificant at young ages, most of the change in cohort size is caused by migration. My estimates show that during the last intercensal period, 2003-2010, up to 70 percent of youth cohorts have left the regional periphery after graduating from school, and there was no substantial return to the demographically depleted periphery in the young working ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Economic convergence in ageing Europe," OSF Preprints uy8dn, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uy8dn
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/uy8dn
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/5920d20cb83f69024f8f107a/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/uy8dn?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Diana Gutiérrez Posada & Fernando Rubiera Morollón & Ana Viñuela, 2018. "Ageing Places in an Ageing Country: The Local Dynamics of the Elderly Population in Spain," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 109(3), pages 332-349, July.
    3. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Lábaj, Martin & Pružinský, Patrik, 2014. "Prospective ageing and economic growth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 50-57.
    4. Philippe Monfort & David de la Croix, 2000. "Education funding and regional convergence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 403-424.
    5. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
    6. Roberto Ezcurra & Carlos Gil & Pedro Pascual & Manuel Rapun, 2005. "Inequality, Polarisation and Regional Mobility in the European Union," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(7), pages 1057-1076, June.
    7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Doris Ritzberger-Grunwald & Maria Antoinette Silgoner, 2008. "Growth, convergence and EU membership," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 643-656.
    8. Thomas Lindh & Bo Malmberg, 1999. "Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 431-449.
    9. Chris Wilson & Tomáš Sobotka & Lee Williamson & Paul Boyle, 2013. "Migration and Intergenerational Replacement in Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 131-157, March.
    10. Aadne Cappelen & Fulvio Castellacci & Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "The Impact of EU Regional Support on Growth and Convergence in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 621-644, September.
    11. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Gernot Doppelhofer & Martin Feldkircher, 2014. "The Determinants of Economic Growth in European Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 44-67, January.
    12. Roberto Ezcurra & Manuel Rapún, 2007. "Regional Dynamics And Convergence Profiles In The Enlarged European Union: A Non‐Parametric Approach," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 98(5), pages 564-584, December.
    13. Guido Pellegrini & Flavia Terribile & Ornella Tarola & Teo Muccigrosso & Federica Busillo, 2013. "Measuring the effects of European Regional Policy on economic growth: A regression discontinuity approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 92(1), pages 217-233, March.
    14. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.
    15. Sandy Dall'Erba & Marco Percoco & Gianfranco Piras, 2008. "The European Regional Growth Process Revisited," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 7-25.
    16. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    17. David S. Reher, 2011. "Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 11-33, January.
    18. de la Croix, David & Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2009. "Demographic change and economic growth in Sweden: 1750-2050," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 132-148, March.
    19. Doran, Justin & Jordan, Declan, 2013. "Decomposing European NUTS2 regional inequality from 1980 to 2009: national and European policy implications," MPRA Paper 44805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Futagami, Koichi & Nakajima, Tetsuya, 2001. "Population Aging and Economic Growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 31-44, January.
    21. Robert Leonardi, 2006. "Cohesion in the European Union," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 155-166.
    22. Cem Ertur & James Lesage, 2006. "Local versus global convergence in Europe : a bayesian spatial econometric approach," Post-Print hal-00485025, HAL.
    23. Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 1995. "Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 32(4), pages 543-555, November.
    24. Luca Salvati & Margherita Carlucci, 2016. "Patterns of Sprawl: The Socioeconomic and Territorial Profile of Dispersed Urban Areas in Italy," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(8), pages 1346-1359, August.
    25. Mihály Borsi & Norbert Metiu, 2015. "The evolution of economic convergence in the European Union," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 657-681, March.
    26. repec:rre:publsh:v:37:y:2007:i:1:p:82-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Luca Salvati, 2016. "The Dark Side of the Crisis: Disparities in per Capita income (2000–12) and the Urban-Rural Gradient in Greece," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(5), pages 628-641, December.
    28. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason, 2010. "Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 47(1), pages 151-172, March.
    29. Damien Neven & Claudine Gouymte, 1995. "Regional Convergence in the European Community," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 47-65, March.
    30. Ron Lesthaeghe, 2010. "The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 211-251, June.
    31. Marco Percoco, 2016. "Labour Market Institutions: Sensitivity to the Cycle and Impact of the Crisis in European Regions," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(3), pages 375-385, July.
    32. Nicole Van Der Gaag & Joop Beer, 2015. "From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden: The Impact of Population Ageing on Economic Growth in Europe," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 106(1), pages 94-109, February.
    33. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
    34. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Loichinger, Elke & Vincelette, Gallina A., 2016. "Aging and income convergence in Europe: A survey of the literature and insights from a demographic projection exercise," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 4-17.
    35. Justin Doran & Declan Jordan, 2013. "Decomposing European NUTS2 regional inequality from 1980 to 2009," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 40(1), pages 22-38, January.
    36. Theil, Henri, 1979. "The measurement of inequality by components of income," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 197-199.
    37. David S. Reher, 2015. "Baby booms, busts, and population ageing in the developed world," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 69(sup1), pages 57-68, April.
    38. Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, April.
    39. Bernard Fingleton & Harry Garretsen & Ron Martin, 2012. "Recessionary Shocks And Regional Employment: Evidence On The Resilience Of U.K. Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(1), pages 109-133, February.
    40. Jan Van Bavel & David S. Reher, 2013. "The Baby Boom and Its Causes: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(2), pages 257-288, June.
    41. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    42. Maza, Adolfo & Hierro, María & Villaverde, José, 2012. "Income distribution dynamics across European regions: Re-examining the role of space," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2632-2640.
    43. Aadne Cappelen & Fulvio Castellacci & Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "The Impact of EU Regional Support on Growth and Convergence in the European Union," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 621-644, September.
    44. Albert Sabater & Elspeth Graham & Nissa Finney, 2017. "The spatialities of ageing: Evidencing increasing spatial polarisation between older and younger adults in England and Wales," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(25), pages 731-744.
    45. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    46. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández De Cos, 2008. "Does Population Ageing Promote Faster Economic Growth?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 54(3), pages 350-372, September.
    47. Ronald D. Lee & Andrew Mason, 2011. "Generational Economics in a Changing World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 37(Supplemen), pages 115-142, January.
    48. Joshua R. Goldstein & Fanny Kluge, 2016. "Demographic Pressures on European Unity," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 42(2), pages 299-304, June.
    49. Fanny Annemarie Kluge, 2013. "The Fiscal Impact of Population Aging in Germany," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(1), pages 37-63, January.
    50. Bernard Fingleton, 1999. "Estimates of Time to Economic Convergence: An Analysis of Regions of the European Union," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 5-34, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
    2. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    3. Kashnitsky, Ilya, 2020. "Changing regional inequalities in ageing across Europe," OSF Preprints 6m4kg, Center for Open Science.
    4. Prskawetz, A. & Kogel, T. & Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S., 2007. "The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 587-602.
    5. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    6. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Alma Maciulyte-Sniukiene & Kristina Matuzeviciute, 2018. "What Is the Evolution of Convergence in the EU? Decomposing EU Disparities up to NUTS 3 Level," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-37, May.
    8. Federico Benassi & Luca Salvati, 2019. "Economic downturns and compositional effects in regional population structures by age: a multi-temporal analysis in Greek regions, 1981–2017," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(5), pages 2611-2633, September.
    9. Elena Calegari & Enrico Fabrizi & Gianni Guastella & Francesco Timpano, 2021. "EU regional convergence in the agricultural sector: Are there synergies between agricultural and regional policies?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(1), pages 23-50, February.
    10. Thomas Flochel & Yuki Ikeda & Harry Moroz & Nithin Umapathi, 2014. "Macroeconomic Implications of Aging in East Asia Pacific," World Bank Publications - Reports 23026, The World Bank Group.
    11. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(2), pages 1-25, September.
    12. Mason, Andrew & Lee, Ronald, 2013. "Labor and consumption across the lifecycle," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 1, pages 16-27.
    13. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2018. "Contribution of demography to economic growth," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-64, March.
    14. Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
    15. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    16. Durr-e-Nayab, 2008. "Demographic Dividend or Demographic Threat in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(1), pages 1-26.
    17. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    18. Julie Le Gallo & Sandy Dall’erba, 2006. "Evaluating the Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity of the European Convergence Process, 1980–1999," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 269-288, May.
    19. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    20. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Türck, Matthias, 2007. "Convergence of EU-Regions. A Literature Report," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 10, pages 5-32.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:uy8dn. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.