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Traders, Market Microstructure and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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Author Info
Yin-Wong Cheung
Menzie D. Chinn

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Abstract

We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that: (i) The share of customer business, versus interbank business, has remained fairly constant; (ii) The channels by which transactions take place have changed, as electronically-brokered transactions have risen from 2% to 46% of total, mostly at the expense of transactions undertaken by traditional brokers; (iii) The single most widely- cited reason for deviating from the standard market convention on the bid-ask spread is a thin/hectic market; (iv) Half or more of market respondents believe that large players dominate in the dollar-pound and dollar-Swiss franc markets; and (v) 60% of respondents believe there is low predictability of exchange rates intraday. Even at medium and long run horizons, only a third of traders believe that there is high predictability.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7416.

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Date of creation: Nov 1999
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7416

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Richard K. Lyons, 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 4471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 1994. "Bid-ask spreads in the interbank foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 317-348, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. William Perraudin & Paolo Vitale, 1996. "Interdealer Trade and Information Flows in a Decentralized Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 73-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  7. Richard K. Lyons., 1997. "Profits and Position Control: A Week of FX Dealing," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-273, University of California at Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Macroeconomic Implications of the Beliefs and Behavior of Foreign Exchange Traders," NBER Working Papers 7417, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  11. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian, 1993. " Trading Patterns and Prices in the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1421-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Giampaolo Galli & Alberto Giovannini, 1996. "The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number fran96-1.
  13. Alan S. Blinder, 1991. "Why are Prices Sticky? Preliminary Results from an Interview Study," NBER Working Papers 3646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Bollerslev, Tim & Melvin, Michael, 1994. "Bid--ask spreads and volatility in the foreign exchange market : An empirical analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 355-372, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Tiffany Hutcheson, 2000. "Trading in the Australian Foreign Exchange Market," Working Paper Series 107, School of Finance and Economics, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bjonnes,H. & Rime,D., 2000. "FX trading ... LIVE! : dealer behavior and trading systems in foreign exchange markets," Memorandum 29/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Bjonnes,H. & Rime,D., 2000. "Customer trading and information in foreign exchange markets," Memorandum 30/2000, Oslo University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Chris D'Souza, 2002. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada," Working Papers 02-16, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Carol Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68. [Downloadable!]
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