Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?
AbstractThis paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18751.
Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision:
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Other versions of this item:
- Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 147-52, May.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2013-02-08 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2013-02-08 (Macroeconomics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
Blog mentionsAs found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
- The slow recovery is even more man-made than the start of the recession
by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-02-18 16:00:00
- Van Zandweghe, Willem & Braxton, John Carter, 2013. "Has durable goods spending become less sensitive to interest rates?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 1-27.
- Allen Sinai, 2010. "The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 25-29, May.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010.
"The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," NBER Working Papers 13264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael Kumhof & Romain Ranciere & Pablo Winant, 2013. "Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default," IMF Working Papers 13/249, International Monetary Fund.
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