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Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?

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  • Kathryn M.E. Dominguez
  • Matthew D. Shapiro

Abstract

This paper asks whether the slow recovery of the US economy from the trough of the Great Recession was anticipated, and identifies some of the factors that contributed to surprises in the course of the recovery. It constructs a narrative using news reports and government announcements to identify policy and financial shocks. It then compares forecasts and forecast revisions of GDP to the narrative. Successive financial and fiscal shocks emanating from Europe, together with self-inflicted wounds from the political stalemate over the US fiscal situation, help explain the slowing of the pace of an already slow recovery.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18751.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Publication status: published as Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Matthew D. Shapiro, 2013. "Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 147-52, May.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18751

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  1. Claudia R. Sahm & Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2010. "Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 69-110 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2009. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1090, European Central Bank.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  4. Allen Sinai, 2010. "The Business Cycle in a Changing Economy: Conceptualization, Measurement, Dating," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 25-29, May.
  5. Ray C. Fair & Matthew D. Shapiro & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1986. "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale," NBER Working Papers 2095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. The slow recovery is even more man-made than the start of the recession
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2013-02-18 16:00:00
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Kumhof & Romain Ranciere & Pablo Winant, 2013. "Inequality, Leverage and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default," IMF Working Papers 13/249, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Viv B. Hall & John McDermott, 2014. "Recessions and Recoveries in New Zealand's Post-Second World War Business Cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  3. Van Zandweghe, Willem & Braxton, John Carter, 2013. "Has durable goods spending become less sensitive to interest rates?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 5-27.

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