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Baby Busts and Baby Booms: The Fertility Response to Shocks in Dynastic Models

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  • Larry E. Jones
  • Alice Schoonbroodt

Abstract

Economic demographers have long analyzed fertility cycles. This paper builds a foundation for these cycles in a model of fertility choice with dynastic altruism and aggregate shocks. It is shown that under reasonable parameter values, fertility is pro-cyclical and that, following a shock, fertility continues to cycle endogenously as subsequent cohorts enter retirement. Quantitatively, in the model, the Great Depression generates a large baby bust -- between 38% and 63% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1930s -- which is subsequently followed by a baby boom -- between 53% and 92% of that seen in the U.S. in the 1950s.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16596.

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Date of creation: Dec 2010
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16596

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  1. Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti, 2010. "Maternal Health and the Baby Boom," NBER Working Papers 16146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Matthias Doepke & Moshe Hazan & Yishay Maoz, 2007. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Schoonbroodt, Alice & Tertilt, Michèle, 2014. "Property rights and efficiency in OLG models with endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 551-582.
  4. Michael R. Haines, 1994. "The Population of the United States, 1790-1920," NBER Historical Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc 0056, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
  6. Gilbert Cette & Yusuf Kocoglu & Jacques Mairesse, 2009. "Productivity Growth and Levels in France, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 15577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. repec:fth:sotoec:0031 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Andolfatto, David & Gervais, Martin, 2008. "Endogenous debt constraints in a life-cycle model with an application to social security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3745-3759, December.
  9. Diane J. Macunovich, 1998. "Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: An assessment of the literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 53-111.
  10. JohnKarl Scholz & Ananth Seshadri, 2007. "Children and Household Wealth," Working Papers, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center wp158, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  11. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2002. "The Baby Boom and Baby Bust," Economie d'Avant Garde Research Reports, Economie d'Avant Garde 1, Economie d'Avant Garde.
  12. Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Nezih Guner & John Knowles, 2002. "Why Do Women Wait? Matching, Wage Inequality, and the Incentives for Fertility Delay," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 815-855, October.
  13. Rodolfo E. Manuelli & Ananth Seshadri, 2009. "Explaining International Fertility Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 124(2), pages 771-807, May.
  14. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2007. "Complements versus Substitutes and Trends in Fertility Choice in Dynastic Models," NBER Working Papers 13680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Xavier Mateos-Planas, 2002. "The Demographic Transition in Europe: A Neoclassical Dynastic Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 646-680, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Nick Parr, 2011. "The contribution of increases in family benefits to Australia’s early 21st-century fertility increase: An empirical analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(6), pages 215-244, July.
  2. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Kai Zhao, 2013. "War Finance and the Baby Boom," Working papers, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics 2013-25, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  4. Doepke, Matthias & Hazan, Moshe & Maoz, Yishay D., 2007. "The Baby Boom and World War II: A Macroeconomic Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 3253, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth, 2010. "How the West ’Invented’ Fertility Restriction," Working Papers 525, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  6. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt, 2007. "Complements versus Substitutes and Trends in Fertility Choice in Dynastic Models," NBER Working Papers 13680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2011. "Measurement Without Theory: A Response to Bailey and Collins," RCER Working Papers 561, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  8. Daishin Yasui, 2014. "A Theory of the Cross-Sectional Fertility Differential: Jobsf Heterogeneity Approach," Discussion Papers 1409, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  9. Orman, Cuneyt & Goksel, Turkmen & Gurdal, Mehmet Y, 2011. "The Baby Boom, Baby Busts, and Grandmothers," MPRA Paper 28782, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Tamura, Robert & Simon, Curtis & Murphy, Kevin M., 2012. "Black and White Fertility, Differential Baby Booms: The Value of Civil Rights," MPRA Paper 40921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Vandenbroucke, Guillaume, 2011. "Optimal fertility during World War I," MPRA Paper 35709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Masako Kimura & Daishin Yasui, 2010. "The Galor–Weil gender-gap model revisited: from home to market," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 323-351, December.

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