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Cohort Crowding: How Resources Affect Collegiate Attainment

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John Bound
Sarah Turner

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Abstract

Analyses of college attainment typically focus on factors affecting enrollment demand, including the financial attractiveness of a college education and the availability of financial aid, while implicitly assuming that resources available per student on the supply side of the market are elastically supplied. The higher education market in the United States is dominated by public and non-profit production, and colleges and universities receive considerable subsidies from state, federal, and private sources. Because consumers pay only a fraction of the cost of production, changes in demand are unlikely to be accommodated fully by colleges and universities without commensurate increases in non-tuition revenue. For this reason, public investment in higher education plays a crucial role in determining the degrees produced and the supply of college-educated workers to the labor market. Using data covering the last half of the twentieth century, we find strong evidence that large cohorts within states have relatively low undergraduate degree attainment, reflecting less than perfect elasticity of supply in the higher education market. That large cohorts receive lower public subsidies per student in higher education explains this result, indicating that resources have large effects on degree production. Our results suggest that reduced resources per student following from rising cohort size and lower state expenditures are likely to have significant negative effects on the supply of college-educated workers entering the labor market.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12424.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12424

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education Research Institutions
H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Eric A. Hanushek & Steven G. Rivkin & Lori L. Taylor, 1996. "Aggregation and the Estimated Effects of School Resources," NBER Working Papers 5548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Gordon C. Winston, 1999. "Subsidies, Hierarchy and Peers: The Awkward Economics of Higher Education," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 13-36, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David Card & Thomas Lemieux, 2000. "Can Falling Supply Explain the Rising Return to College for Younger Men? A Cohort-Based Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7655, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Willis, Robert J, 1973. "A New Approach to the Economic Theory of Fertility Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages S14-64, Part II, . [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Claudia Goldin, 1999. "A Brief History of Education in the United States," NBER Historical Working Papers 0119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. James M. Poterba, 1996. "Demographic Structure and the Political Economy of Public Education," NBER Working Papers 5677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne & Stanger, Shuchita, 1999. "The Highs and Lows of the Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study of the Canadian Law," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 318-50, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 1-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alan B. Krueger, 1999. "Experimental Estimates Of Education Production Functions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(2), pages 497-532, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Stapleton, David C & Young, Douglas J, 1988. "Educational Attainment and Cohort Size," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(3), pages 330-61, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Leigh, D. E. & Gill, A. M., 2003. "Do community colleges really divert students from earning bachelor's degrees?," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 23-30, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Rouse, Cecilia Elena, 1995. "Democratization or Diversion? The Effect of Community Colleges on Educational Attainment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(2), pages 217-24, April.
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  1. Flores-Lagunes, Alfonso & Light, Audrey, 2009. "Interpreting Degree Effects in the Returns to Education," IZA Discussion Papers 4169, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Gordon H. Hanson & Craig McIntosh, 2007. "The Great Mexican Emigration," NBER Working Papers 13675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cory Koedel, 2009. "Postsecondary Education Structure," Working Papers 0906, Department of Economics, University of Missouri. [Downloadable!]
  4. Elizabeth Cascio & Damon Clark & Nora Gordon, 2008. "Education and the Age Profile of Literacy into Adulthood," NBER Working Papers 14073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hemelt, Steven W. & Marcotte, Dave E., 2008. "Rising Tuition and Enrollment in Public Higher Education," IZA Discussion Papers 3827, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  6. Philip A. Trostel, 2007. "The fiscal impacts of college attainment," New England Public Policy Center Working Paper 07-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ginger Zhe Jin & Alex Whalley, 2007. "The Power of Attention: Do Rankings Affeect the Financial Resources of Public Colleges?," NBER Working Papers 12941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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