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Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

This paper reports results for a class of dynamic, stochastic general equilibrium models with credit constraints that can account for some of the empirical regularities of the Sudden Stop phenomenon of recent emerging markets crises. In these models, credit constraints set in motion Irving Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism and they bind as an endogenous equilibrium outcome when agents are highly indebted. The quantitative predictions of these models yield three key lessons: (1) Sudden Stops can occur as an endogenous response to typical realizations of adverse shocks to fundamentals, in environments in which agents plan their actions taking credit constraints and expectations of Sudden Stops into account. (2) Credit constraints cause output declines during Sudden Stops when collateral constraints limit debt to a fraction of the market value of capital, when there are limits on access to working capital, or when debt-deflation lowers the value of the marginal product of factors of production. (3) The debt-deflation mechanism has significant quantitative effects in terms of the amplification, asymmetry and persistence of the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to standard shocks, and in the occurrence of Sudden Stops as infrequent events nested within regular business cycles. Precautionary saving rules out the largest Sudden Stops from the stochastic stationary state, but Sudden Stops remain a positive-probability event in the long run.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11966.

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Date of creation: Jan 2006
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Publication status: published as Mendoza, Enrique G. "Lessons From The Debt-Deflation Theory Of Sudden Stops," American Economic Review, 2006, v96(2,May), 411-416.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11966

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  1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9261 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," IMF Working Papers 06/88, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  6. Helene Rey & Philippe Martin, 2005. "Globalization and Emerging Markets: With or Without Crash?," 2005 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  7. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden stops and output drops," Staff Report 353, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Cook, David & Devereux, Michael B., 2006. "External currency pricing and the East Asian crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 37-63, June.
  9. Durdu, Ceyhun Bora & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2006. "Are asset price guarantees useful for preventing Sudden Stops?: A quantitative investigation of the globalization hazard-moral hazard tradeoff," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 84-119, June.
  10. Emine Boz, 2005. "Do Miracles Lead to Crises?: An Informational Frictions Explanation to Emerging Market Financial Crises," 2005 Meeting Papers 496, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Cristina Arellano & Enrique Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," Research Department Publications 4307, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  12. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Working Papers 8338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
  14. repec:fth:starer:9825 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Finn, Mary G., 1995. "Variance properties of Solow's productivity residual and their cyclical implications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-7), pages 1249-1281.
  16. S. Rao Aiyagari & Mark Gertler, 1999. ""Overreaction" of Asset Prices in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 3-35, January.
  17. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
  18. Ricardo Caballero & Stavros Panageas, 2005. "A Quantitative Model of Sudden Stops and External Liquidity Management," NBER Working Papers 11293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Gopinath, Gita, 2004. "Lending booms, sharp reversals and real exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 1-23, January.
  20. Oviedo, P. Marcelo, 2005. "World Interest Rate, Business Cycles, and Financial Intermediation in Small Open Economies," Staff General Research Papers 12360, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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Cited by:
  1. Thierry Tressel & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Financial Globalization and the Governance of Domestic Financial Intermediaries," IMF Working Papers 07/47, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Levan Efremidze & Akinori Tomohara, 2011. "Have the Implications of Twin Deficits Changed?: Sudden Stops over Decades," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 66-76, February.
  3. Almira Buzaushina & Michael Brei, 2009. "Matching International Financial Shocks in Emerging Markets," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse2_2009, University of Bonn, Germany.
  4. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2007. "Precautionary demand for foreign assets in sudden stop economies: an assessment of the new mercantilism," International Finance Discussion Papers 911, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Mendicino, Caterina, 2008. "On the amplification role of collateral constraints," MPRA Paper 9425, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Aysun, Uluc & Honig, Adam, 2011. "Bankruptcy costs, liability dollarization, and vulnerability to sudden stops," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 201-211, July.
  7. Galina Hale & Assaf Razin & Hui Tong, 2008. "Credit Crunch, Creditor Protection, and Asset Prices," Working Papers 162008, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Hale, Galina B & Razin, Assaf & Tong, Hui, 2008. "Creditor Protection, Contagion, and Stock Market Price Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Ronald U. Mendoza, 2007. "A Compendium of Policy Instruments to Enhance Financial Stability and Debt Management in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 48, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
  10. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Mai Dao & Alfredo Baldini, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis," IMF Working Papers 12/94, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Aliya Algozhina, 2012. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions in an Emerging Open Economy: a Non-Ricardian DSGE Approach," FIW Working Paper series 094, FIW, revised Dec 2012.
  12. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
  13. Hale, Galina B & Razin, Assaf & Tong, Hui, 2007. "Creditor Protection and Stock Price Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 6540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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