IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2006-088.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza

Abstract

This paper shows that the dominant view that the high variability of real exchange rates is due to movements in exchange rate-adjusted prices of tradable goods does not hold for Mexican data for periods with a managed exchange rate. The relative price of nontradables accounts for up to 70 percent of real exchange rate variability during these periods. The paper also proposes a model in which this fact, and the sudden stops that accompanied the collapse of Mexico's managed exchange rates, could result from a Fisherian debt-deflation mechanism operating via nontradables prices in economies with dollarized liabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," IMF Working Papers 2006/088, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=18851
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.
    3. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
    4. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    5. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Martín Gonzalez Rozada, 2003. "The elasticity of Substitution in demand for Non tradable Goods in Latin America. Case Study: Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers 027, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    6. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
    7. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
    8. Marianne Baxter & Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Business Cycles and the Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate across Exchange-Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," NBER Working Papers 7768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Engel, Charles, 2001. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy: The Influence of Price Setting and Asset Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 518-541, May.
    12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    13. Arellano, Cristina & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2002. "Credit Frictions and "Sudden Stop" in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1440, Inter-American Development Bank.
    14. Adao, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2009. "On the relevance of exchange rate regimes for stabilization policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1468-1488, July.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    16. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3.
    17. Pedro Teles & Bernardino Adao & Isabel Correia, 2005. "Exchange Rate Regimes," 2005 Meeting Papers 382, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The benefits of dollarization when stabilization policy lacks credibility and financial markets are imperfect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 440-481.
    19. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    20. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    21. Altug,Sumru & Chadha,Jagjit S. & Nolan,Charles (ed.), 2003. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826686.
    22. Jonathan D. Ostry & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1992. "Private Saving and Terms of Trade Shocks: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 495-517, September.
    23. Altug,Sumru & Chadha,Jagjit S. & Nolan,Charles (ed.), 2003. "Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521534031.
    24. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    25. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
    26. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December.
    27. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
    28. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    2. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    3. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
    4. DavidC. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-Foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(523), pages 1336-1356, October.
    5. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.
    6. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.
    7. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Smith, Katherine A., 2006. "Quantitative implications of a debt-deflation theory of Sudden Stops and asset prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 82-114, September.
    8. Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
    9. Christian Broda, 2002. "Uncertainty, exchange rate regimes, and national price levels," Staff Reports 151, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit, Prices, and Crashes: Business Cycles with a Sudden Stop," NBER Chapters, in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 335-392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Neumeyer, Pablo A. & Perri, Fabrizio, 2005. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 345-380, March.
    12. Jorge Carrera & Romain Restout, 2008. "Long Run Determinants of Real Exchange Rates in Latin America," Post-Print halshs-00276402, HAL.
    13. Margarida Duarte, 2001. "International pricing in new open-economy models," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 53-70.
    14. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2007. "What accounts for China's trade balance dynamics?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 821-837.
    15. Oleg Itskhoki, 2021. "The Story of the Real Exchange Rate," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 423-455, August.
    16. Jorge Carrera & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon & Romain Restout, 2021. "Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin American Countries: A Trade-Off Issue," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 141, pages 71-102.
    17. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
    19. Uribe, Martin & Yue, Vivian Z., 2006. "Country spreads and emerging countries: Who drives whom?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 6-36, June.
    20. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; nominal exchange rate; equilibrium price; debt ceiling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2006/088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.