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Accounting for Real Exchange Rate Changes in East Asia

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  • David Parsley

Abstract

This study measures the proportion of real exchange rate movements that can be accounted for by movements in the relative price of non-traded goods among twenty-one bilateral Asian-Pacific real exchange rates. Following Engel (1999), the decomposition is done at all possible horizons that the data allow – from one month up to 25 years. Evidence presented here is consistent with that from OECD countries. In particular, relative prices of non-traded goods appear to account for virtually none of the movement of Pacific Rim real exchange rates. This pattern appears unaffected by the cross-sectional variation in either income level, or the degree of openness present among these Pacific-Rim economies. The only exception to these findings occurs when we examine fixed (or semi-fixed) exchange rate regimes separately. However, the one exception (the Hong Kong dollar) is anomalous compared to other managed currencies within the sample, and to the recent findings of Mendoza (2000).

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/if/papers/0211/0211003.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0211003.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 11 Nov 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0211003

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on IBM PC - PC-TEX/UNIX Sparc TeX; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 30; figures: included/request from author/draw your own
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Keywords: traded goods/non-traded goods share of real exchange rate movements;

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References

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  1. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April.
  2. Charles Engel, 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," NBER Working Papers 5646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "The usual suspects? productivity and demand shocks and Asia-Pacific real exchange rates," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate Across Exchange- Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Working Papers 00-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  5. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Working Papers 7777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Strauss, Jack, 1999. "Productivity differentials, the relative price of non-tradables and real exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-409.
  10. Jeffrey Frankel & Andrew Rose, 2002. "An Estimate Of The Effect Of Common Currencies On Trade And Income," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 437-466, May.
  11. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  12. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 1998. "Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: How Price Setting Affects the Optimal Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6867, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alan M. Taylor, 2000. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 7577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
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