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Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products

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  • Parsley, David
  • Popper, Helen

Abstract

We suggest it may be "too easy" to attribute real exchange rate movements to law of one price deviations. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even just a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power; and - defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods - relative prices matter.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21117.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21117

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Keywords: Real Exchange Rates; PPP; MSE decomposition;

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References

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  1. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," NBER Working Papers 7382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
  3. Charles Engel, 1998. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Working Papers 0050, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1999. "New Directions for Stochastic Open Economy Models," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C99-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  6. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  7. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  8. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School.
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  16. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Lippert, Alston Flynn, 1997. "Internal Relative Price Stationarity in Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 195-203, May.
  17. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  19. Janet Ceglowski, 2006. "Is the Border Really That Wide?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 392-413, 08.
  20. Maurice Obstfeld., 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C01-121, University of California at Berkeley.
  21. David C. Parsley, 2001. "Accounting for Real Exchange Rate Changes in East Asia," Working Papers 062001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
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  23. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  24. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anthony Landry & Mario Crucini, 2010. "Accounting for Real Exchange Rates using Micro-Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 1100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Nakamura, Emi & Zerom, Dawit, 2008. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," MPRA Paper 14389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers 242010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, Xing Wang, 2012. "Are Chinese Trade Flows Different?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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