IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/21117.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products

Author

Listed:
  • Parsley, David
  • Popper, Helen

Abstract

We suggest it may be "too easy" to attribute real exchange rate movements to law of one price deviations. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even just a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power; and - defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods - relative prices matter.

Suggested Citation

  • Parsley, David & Popper, Helen, 2009. "Understanding Real Exchange Rate Movements with Trade in Intermediate Products," MPRA Paper 21117, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21117/1/MPRA_paper_21117.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
    2. Ariel Burstein & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2005. "Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(4), pages 742-784, August.
    3. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2005. "Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 49-72, February.
    4. Maurice Obstfeld, 2001. "International Macroeconomics: Beyond the Mundell-Fleming Model," NBER Working Papers 8369, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & CÈdric Tille, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 223-242, February.
    6. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June.
    7. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    8. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    9. Parsley, David C., 2007. "Accounting for real exchange rate changes in East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1355-1377, December.
    10. Burstein, Ariel & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2006. "The importance of nontradable goods' prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 247-253, August.
    11. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
    12. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
    15. Janet Ceglowski, 2006. "Is the Border Really That Wide?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 392-413, August.
    16. Kalyan K. Sanyal & Ronald W. Jones, 2018. "The Theory of Trade in Middle Products," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: International Trade Theory and Competitive Models Features, Values, and Criticisms, chapter 13, pages 203-231, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Ganguly, Srideep & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2010. "Nominal exchange rate volatility, relative price volatility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 840-856, September.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1984. "The Theory of Trade in Middle Products: An Extension," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 485-487, June.
    19. Ronald MacDonald & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2005. "The Real Exchange Rate And The Balassa-Samuelson Effect: The Role Of The Distribution Sector," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 29-48, February.
    20. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies," NBER Working Papers 11691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
    22. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    23. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, José Manuel, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Lippert, Alston Flynn, 1997. "Internal Relative Price Stationarity in Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(2), pages 195-203, May.
    25. Caroline M. Betts & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2008. "Real exchange rate movements and the relative price of non-traded goods," Staff Report 415, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    26. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    27. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradable Goods in Economies Prone to Sudden Stops," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2005), pages 103-148, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Crucini, Mario J. & Landry, Anthony, 2019. "Accounting for real exchange rates using micro-data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 86-100.
    2. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2010. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 1192-1230.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Qian, XingWang, 2012. "Are Chinese trade flows different?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2127-2146.
    4. Bache, Ida Wolden & Sveen, Tommy & Torstensen, Kjersti Næss, 2013. "Revisiting the importance of non-tradable goods' prices in cyclical real exchange rate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 98-107.
    5. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    6. Mr. Joong S Kang & Wei Liao, 2016. "Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?," IMF Working Papers 2016/106, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "Measuring Renminbi Misalignment: Where Do We Stand?," Working Papers 242010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    2. Charles Engel, 2003. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange-Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 231-300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2005. "Expenditure Switching vs. Real Exchange Rate Stabilization: Competing Objectives for Exchange Rate Policy," Working Papers 082005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    5. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    6. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
    7. Emi Nakamura & Dawit Zerom, 2010. "Accounting for Incomplete Pass-Through," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 1192-1230.
    8. Chaban, Maxym, 2011. "Home bias, distribution services and determinants of real exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 793-806.
    9. Masao Ogaki & Sungwook Park, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences," Working Papers 07-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    10. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, José Manuel, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Hellerstein, Rebecca, 2008. "Who bears the cost of a change in the exchange rate? Pass-through accounting for the case of beer," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 14-32, September.
    12. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2009. "The Simple Geometry of Transmission and Stabilization in Closed and Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 65-116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Midrigan, Virgiliu, 2007. "International price dispersion in state-dependent pricing models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2231-2250, November.
    14. Thepthida Sopraseuth & Jean-Olivier Hairault, 2008. "Fluctuations internationales et dynamique du taux de change," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 183(2), pages 65-91.
    15. Dotsey, Michael & Duarte, Margarida, 2008. "Nontraded goods, market segmentation, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1129-1142, September.
    16. Charles Engel, 2002. "The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates And the Implications for Exchange-Rate Policy: A Survey Of a Few Recent New Open-Economy..," NBER Working Papers 8725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Rebecca Hellerstein & Sofia Berto Villas-Boas, 2006. "Arm's-length transactions as a source of incomplete cross-border transmission: the case of autos," Staff Reports 251, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Jeffrey Frankel & David Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2012. "Slow Pass-through Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 213-251, April.
    19. Linda S. Goldberg & Cédric Tille, 2006. "The International Role of the Dollar and Trade Balance Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12495, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Exchange Rates; PPP; MSE decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.