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Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradables in Sudden-Stop-Prone Economies

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Enrique G. Mendoza

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Abstract

The dominant view in the empirical literature on exchange rates is that the high variability of real exchange rates is due to movements in exchange-rate-adjusted prices of tradable goods. This paper shows that this dominant view does not hold in Mexican data for the periods in which the country had managed exchange rate regimes. Variance analysis of a 30-year sample of monthly data shows that movements in the price of nontradables relative to tradables account for up to 70 percent of the variability of the real exchange rate during these periods. The paper proposes a model in which this stylized fact, and the Sudden Stops that accompanied the collapse of Mexico's managed exchange rates, could result from an endogenous amplification mechanism operating via nontradables prices in economies with dollarized liabilities and credit constraints. The key feature of this mechanism is Irving Fisher's debt-deflation process. Numerical evaluation suggests that the Fisherian deflation effects on consumption, the current account, and relative prices dwarf those induced by the standard balance sheet effect typical of the Sudden Stops literature.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11691.

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Date of creation: Oct 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11691

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. David Parsley, 2002. "Accounting for Real Exchange Rate Changes in East Asia," International Finance 0211003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1999. "Inflation Stabilization and BOP Crises in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 6925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, . "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Mendoza, Enrique G, 2001. "The Benefits of Dollarization When Stabilization Policy Lacks Credibility and Financial Markets Are Imperfect," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 440-74, May.
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  7. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Uribe, Martin, 2000. "Devaluation risk and the business-cycle implications of exchange-rate management," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 239-296, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regime," International Finance 0509004, EconWPA, revised 07 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Charles Engel, 2000. "Optimal Exchange Rate Policy: The Influence of Price Setting and Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 7889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Ariel T. Burstein & Joao C. Neves & Sergio Rebelo, 2000. "Distribution Costs and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics During Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilizations," RCER Working Papers 473, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J & McGrattan, Ellen R, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 69(3), pages 533-63, July.
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  12. Baxter, M. & Stockman, A.C., 1988. "Business Cycles And The Exchange Rate System: Some International Evidence," RCER Working Papers 140, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  13. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Cristina Arellano & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2002. "Credit Frictions and 'Sudden Stops' in Small Open Economies: An Equilibrium Business Cycle Framework for Emerging Markets Crises," NBER Working Papers 8880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Kanda Naknoi, 2005. "Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Endogenous Tradability," 2005 Meeting Papers 857, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Adao, Bernardino & Correia, Maria Isabel Horta & Teles, Pedro, 2006. "On the Relevance of Exchange Rate Regimes for Stabilization Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 5797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "On the Instability of Variance Decompositions of the Real Exchange Rate Across Exchange- Rate-Regimes: Evidence from Mexico and the United States," Working Papers 00-05, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Charles Engel, 1995. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 5394, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Pablo Andres Neumeyer & Martín Gonzalez Rozada, 2003. "The elasticity of Substitution in demand for Non tradable Goods in Latin America. Case Study: Argentina," Department of Economics Working Papers 027, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  21. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Michael Kumhof & Douglas Laxton, 2009. "Chile's Structural Fiscal Surplus Rule: A Model-Based Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 09/88, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Staff Report 414, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 411-416, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Ceyhun Bora Durdu, 2007. "Quantitative implications of indexed bonds in small open economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 909, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Papa N'Diaye & Ping Zhang & Wenlang Zhang, 2008. "Structural Reform, Intra-Regional Trade, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects of East Asia and the Pacific --- Perspectives from a new multi-region model," Working Papers 0817, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Michael Kumhof & Shujing Li & Isabel K. Yan, 2007. "Balance of Payments Crises Under Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/84, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Michael Kumhof & Isabel K. Yan, 2009. "Balance of Payments Anti-Crises," IMF Working Papers 09/134, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ceyhun Bora Durdu & Serdar Sayan, 2008. "Emerging market business cycles with remittance fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 946, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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